#比特币对比代币化黄金 2025.12.5 Some Observations on $BTC

Let’s first review yesterday’s assessment—
I mentioned that if the price couldn't hold the 93,000 line for a long time, then selling pressure would build up. The key area to watch is the support zone between 91,500 and 92,000; once reached, you could try a small long position, but don’t expect a big profit—the rebound would mostly be technical. If the price keeps dropping, 90,000-90,500 could be the bottom for this correction.

What actually happened? The price did indeed hover below 93,000 for most of the day. Around 10:30 pm, it dipped to as low as 91,800, then quickly bounced back to 93,250, but couldn’t hold and started falling again. In the early morning hours, it touched a low of 90,900, then rebounded to 92,700. This basically followed the expected path.

The core question now: Is this correction over?

I’m inclined to think it isn’t quite done yet. Here’s why:

First, the price hasn’t really tested the 90,000-90,500 zone, which I previously marked as a key support area. Second, today’s rebound was honestly a bit weak. While there’s always a chance of a sudden surge later, based on current performance, the probability of further downside seems higher.

What am I doing? My long orders have been placed around 90,000-90,500 for a while, and to be more aggressive—I haven’t set a stop-loss. Either I catch the move, or I’m prepared to add more to average down.

Of course, this is a slightly bearish outlook. But what if the price just can’t drop further? Then I’ll watch for one signal: whether it can effectively reclaim 93,000. If that level is recovered, it could mean the lower points won’t be reached and a clear bottoming signal is forming. At that point, my strategy will adjust accordingly.

In the short term, it’s all about watching the tug-of-war between these two directions.