ETH is currently stuck grinding back and forth around $3,170, with many people watching the charts so much their eyes hurt, yet still unable to discern the direction. Don’t panic—if you look at a just-released major development and the 4-hour chart, there are actually clues to how this will play out.

**First, some big-picture context: Japan is about to make a move**

Bank of America just released a forecast—the Bank of Japan is very likely to raise interest rates to 0.75% in December, with additional hikes roughly every six months after. Sounds unrelated to crypto? Wrong—this could have a significant impact.

The logic is straightforward: if Japan hikes rates, some global hot money may withdraw from high-risk areas and flow back into traditional assets. In the short term, yes, it’s a minor bearish factor. But looking at it another way, when liquidity tightens, some investors may turn to decentralized assets like crypto as a hedge, which could present a long-term opportunity. So don’t get weak-kneed just because you hear “rate hike”—the market is never a one-way street.

**Now for the technicals: this spot is a bit tricky**

ETH is currently trapped in a box between $3,100 and $3,200, seesawing back and forth. $3,100 below is solid support, while $3,200 above is a long-standing resistance. There’s a positive sign—the yellow and white lines on the 4-hour chart have just formed a golden cross above the zero axis, indicating some upward momentum in the short term.

But what’s the issue? The volume isn’t there! It’s like the gas pedal is halfway down—the car wants to speed up but isn’t going all out. The market is quiet, which means most capital is still on the sidelines watching, and bulls and bears are arm-wrestling with no decisive advantage. This is not the time to go all in.

**What’s the outlook right now?**

To put it simply, it’s a tug-of-war: “technicals want to break out, but fundamentals are holding things back.” The golden cross is there, so there’s theoretically a basis for an upward breakout, but the Japanese rate hike card is making investors hesitate. Whether ETH can break through $3,200 depends on whether volume picks up in the next move. If it stays low, we’ll keep grinding in this range; if there’s a sudden spike in volume along with the golden cross, then the space above $3,200 will truly open up.

The current strategy is simple: don’t try to pick tops or bottoms, just keep a close eye on the key levels at $3,100 and $3,200, and wait for the market to reveal its answer.