Reuters Survey: Over 80% of Economists Bet on a December Rate Cut, but Significant Divisions Emerge Among Fed Officials

On December 4, according to the latest Reuters poll of economists, there is an overwhelming consensus in the market that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December.

Out of 108 economists surveyed, as many as 82% (89 respondents) expect the Fed to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut at this month’s FOMC meeting. This proportion is essentially unchanged from the November survey and closely matches the current 87% rate-cut probability reflected in the interest rate futures market.

However, this strong market consensus stands in stark contrast to the growing internal divisions among the Fed’s policymakers. The survey notes that Fed officials are divided over whether the global economy will require further easing in 2026.

This internal uncertainty is also directly reflected in economists’ uncertain interest rate forecasts for 2026.

While Goldman Sachs Research predicts that the Fed will implement two more rate cuts in 2026, bringing the federal funds target range down to 3.00%-3.25% by the end of next year, there is no consensus on the specific quarterly rate path.

In summary, the results of this survey clearly show that the market widely expects the Fed to cut rates in December, viewing it as a set response to the cooling labor market;

However, there is no clear consensus on the longer-term rate trend, either within the Fed or among economists.

This also suggests that the policy path for 2026 will be fraught with uncertainty and could become a new source of market volatility.

#美联储 # rate cut