This weekend, something might shake up the crypto market—the situation in South America is rapidly heading in a dangerous direction.

Just look at the recent developments and you’ll see this is no ordinary matter. Top officials in Washington have been holding late-night meetings, sending out a series of tough signals; the diplomatic department has issued the strictest type of warning: everyone must evacuate immediately. Even more crucial are the military moves—11 warships have quietly taken their positions, including heavyweight assets like strategic nuclear submarines. Fighter jets have been circling overhead, conducting reconnaissance. Multiple sources are all pointing to the same conclusion: a critical tipping point is near.

There was still room for negotiation before. Local leaders had put forward conditions, hoping to retain some power and facilitate a transition, but the other side refused outright. Now the path to a political solution is completely blocked, and the remaining options are very clear. The motivations behind this operation are straightforward: eliminate a strategic piece in South America and conveniently divert attention from domestic issues. Plus, the terrain over there is complex and the area is vast—if real action breaks out, the impact will be far beyond just the immediate region.

If you look back at history, you’ll see that every time a geopolitical conflict of this scale erupts, financial markets always take a hit. If fighting really breaks out this time, the trajectory of risk assets could change in an instant. For those of us in the crypto community, this is a classic black swan event—liquidity can vanish in a flash, and market sentiment can shift in a heartbeat. Sudden, unexpected crashes often happen exactly at moments like these.

Right now, it feels like the calm before the storm. This weekend, the whole world is waiting for an outcome. Will the crypto market experience violent turbulence as a result? We’ll know the answer very soon.