After three consecutive days of declines, A-shares finally caught a breather today. However, don’t get too greedy with this rebound—if prices surge, remember to lock in your profits. Judging from the technical pattern, this wave C correction is very likely to break below 3800, with the time cycle starting at a minimum of six days, and the intensity may even surpass the previous wave A.



Yesterday, funds already started to preemptively buy up a few core targets in the tech sector for a rebound. How much can the market bounce back today? Watch the trading volume—the higher the volume, the bigger the rebound; if volume shrinks, then it’s just minor fluctuations. Yesterday, total A-share turnover was only 1.56 trillion yuan, hitting a new low for this phase. With year-end approaching, institutions and major shareholders are busy cashing out and locking in profits, leading to very tight market liquidity.

The current position is a classic rebound in the midst of a downtrend, so the strategy is simple: sell high when the market rallies, and buy low on pullbacks. Stick to this rhythm and don’t get off track.

Possible directions for a rebound and some key pre-market news:

**Gallium Nitride sees new developments.** Jiufengshan Laboratory has released a gallium nitride power module that claims to save 300 million kWh per year for super-large AI computing centers. Institutions believe the demand for third-generation semiconductors is about to explode. Yesterday, some gallium nitride joint concepts in the robotics sector, like Gaogu Technology and Ruineng Technology, already stood out. Let’s see if this can drive a broader rally in semiconductor materials today. Also, Moore Threads is going public today, which could further stimulate semiconductor-related stocks.

**IPO windfalls are back.** A single lot in Moore Threads’ IPO is expected to net 150,000 yuan. Institutions like CITIC and a large group of employees are set for a windfall. It’s basically like a lottery—keep trying your luck.

**Wave of share reductions continues.** For stocks like Sun Cable and Haike Xinyuan, which have surged recently, shareholders can’t wait to cash out, and the disclosed reduction ratios are not small. The year-end cash crunch is very real.

**Entertainment sector shows promise.** "Zootopia 2" has led the daily box office for 10 consecutive days and is expected to remain hot over the weekend. It’s worth watching how cultural media and cinema-related stocks perform today.

**Non-ferrous metals are in an awkward spot.** News is out that Mercuria is making big moves to take delivery from the global copper market, and LME inventories are nearly depleted. However, the non-ferrous sector opened high and closed low yesterday—a classic case of “sell the news.” There’s been a lot of futures-driven excitement recently, but the secondary market response is lukewarm.

**Can robotics lead the market?** On Thursday, robotics was the strongest theme. If it can remain strong today, the market rebound could have more power; if not, the ceiling for this rebound will be limited. The sustainability of this main line is now a key indicator.

**Liquidity remains tight.** The third highest redemption record of the year just occurred: stock ETFs saw 25.3 billion units redeemed in a single day, reportedly due to year-end profit-taking. In short, everyone is short on cash at year-end, so slow down your trading pace and focus on stability.
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MEVictimvip
· 12-05 02:54
Moore Threads IPO one lot is 150,000, people are lining up for this deal, new stocks really are like lotteries, haha. A rebound is just a rebound, don’t expect to get rich overnight. Everyone’s cashing out at the end of the year, there really isn’t that much trading volume. Are we hyping gallium nitride again? It was the same around this time last year. Let’s see if the robotics sector can hold up. Whether 3,800 breaks or not still depends on the volume. 1.56 trillion in turnover is pretty dismal—where did all the liquidity go? I just want to know who’s going to take over these offloads today. The drop in Sun Cable is really brutal.
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LiquidatedDreamsvip
· 12-05 02:54
Ha, it's the same old pump and dump routine, so boring. How long can this semiconductor rally last? Feels like it's just a smokescreen. Moore Threads IPO lottery, looks like institutions are going to cash in again. The non-ferrous sector is looking so awkward, should've seen it coming. If robotics really loses momentum, any rebound is basically fake. Liquidity is so tight at the end of the year, what are you even hoping for? Take profits after a rally, is it really that simple? Who would believe that?
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LiquidityLarryvip
· 12-05 02:54
It’s the same old year-end cash-out routine, institutions are pulling out and running away. Moore Threads IPO nets 150,000 per lot, isn’t this just a trap for retail investors? Tired of hearing about buying low and selling high—it all depends on whether there’s real money to take over. The gallium nitride story has been hyped for so long, and now they’re pitching a tale about saving electricity costs—honestly, that’s a bit ridiculous. Trading volume hitting a new low at 1.56 trillion shows everyone’s scared. This rebound is at best just a reflex arc.
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AirdropHuntressvip
· 12-05 02:44
1.56 trillion turnover hits a new low, liquidity is so tight and you still expect a rebound? Watching institutions cashing out crazily at the end of the year, I knew this rebound would only last for a short while. Unless robots can really take over, the follow-up to this rebound is worth paying attention to. Otherwise, it’s just a temporary pause for funds to catch their breath. I’m not interested in the Moore Threads IPO lottery ticket worth 150,000 per lot. This kind of hype is the most dangerous, especially considering the tokenomics. Needs to be re-examined. Gallium nitride power modules save 300 million kWh? Data suggests we should question this kind of promotional claim. There have been too many cases with questionable project backgrounds in the past. Nonferrous metals’ positive results have already played out, indicating that big capital exited a long time ago, leaving retail investors to take over. Recommend watching out for subsequent risks. “Take profits while you can” makes sense, but don’t be scared by the wave of share reductions. The year-end cash crunch is real, and there will be opportunities for bargain hunting later. Volume is the key. Yesterday’s turnover level shows the market is still on the sidelines. If today doesn’t break 1.8 trillion, I’m bearish on the sustainability of this rebound. Robots were strong on Thursday. If they continue today, there’s potential. Otherwise, it’ll just be another round of bulls getting slaughtered.
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OnChainDetectivevip
· 12-05 02:30
volume data's looking sus tbh... that 1.56T low screams institutional exit pattern, classic year-end liquidity drain signature right there
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