2025-12-04 23:37:12

Prediction market platform Kalshi just closed a $1 billion funding round at an $11 billion valuation, with Paradigm and Sequoia betting big. Their pitch? Sports markets are "derivatives," not gambling. Here's the problem: 90% of their $20 billion trading volume comes from sports bets. Connecticut and Nevada regulators aren't buying it—cease and desist letters are already landing. The real kicker? Those flashy partnerships with CNN and CNBC won't mean much if the business model collapses under regulatory pressure. When your core revenue stream depends on redefining what constitutes gambling versus financial derivatives, you're walking a legal tightrope. Big-name investors and media deals can't rewrite compliance rules.

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MetaMaskVictim

· 12-06 02:19

Bro, this is a classic paper tiger. No amount of fundraising can block the hammer of regulation. ==== 90% of their revenue comes from sports gambling, and they still dare to call it derivatives? What a joke. ==== Paradigm and Sequoia probably fell into a trap this time. No matter how big the license, it can’t save an illegal business. ==== Once US regulators step in, it’s basically over. Even a CNN partnership is useless. ==== To put it bluntly, they’re just using complex concepts to put a disguise on gambling. Regulators aren’t stupid. ==== Connecticut and Nevada have both issued bans. How are you supposed to play now? ==== Raised $1B at an $11B valuation, just waiting to get fined. ==== The legal game of derivatives vs gambling will inevitably crash in the end. ==== I don’t touch any of these platforms. The risk is ridiculously high. ==== Big-name investors’ endorsements are useless if the rules can’t be changed—it’s doomed.

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Ser_APY_2000

· 12-06 00:14

Here comes another "we're not gambling, we're derivatives" gimmick... 90% of revenue comes from sports betting, I've seen this script way too many times. --- Paradigm and Sequoia are probably throwing money down the drain this time; deals with CNN and CNBC can't withstand regulatory crackdowns. --- Seriously, raising $1 billion and thinking you can dodge the gambling label just by redefining terms? Connecticut and Nevada have already issued cease and desist orders—how do you expect to keep operating? --- A platform gets 90% of its revenue from sports betting, then turns around and claims it's about derivatives... that's just absurd. --- No matter how loudly you hype up those media partnerships, they can't save the model. Just wait to get shot down. --- Is this the classic "if you throw enough money at it, you can change the rules"? Sorry, compliance doesn't work like that.

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MainnetDelayedAgain

· 12-05 00:05

90% of the volume comes from sports events, yet they claim to do derivatives. Does the logic of this database even add up? The regulatory letter has been delivered. How much longer until the pie of “redefining gambling” is eaten? Let's count the days together. The partnership with CNN and CNBC is indeed flashy, but compliance is something they just can't fix. A valuation of $1.1 billion with 90% of revenue from sports betting—this ledger sure takes some imagination. If the regulators aren't buying it, will the investors’ money come through... It’s a bit doubtful.

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NFT_Therapy_Group

· 12-05 00:04

Damn, it's the same old wordplay trick... Derivative is derivative—no matter how fancy you say it, it's still just gambling on sports. --- Paradigm and Sequoia threw in so much money, and then Connecticut just slapped them down with a single ban—hilarious. --- 90% of the trading volume comes from sports betting, and they're still trying to argue it's derivatives... Bro, do you think regulators are blind? --- What can a partnership with CNN and CNBC even save? Compliance isn't something you can solve with marketing. --- An $11b valuation built on a concept dancing on the legal borderline—this business is doomed sooner or later. --- I just want to see how they're going to distinguish between "sports betting" and "financial derivatives" in court—this is wild. --- No matter how badass the investors are, they can't change the rules of regulation. It's always been this harsh.

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GateUser-0717ab66

· 12-04 23:50

ngl this is just a typical case of "the art of naming." Changing the label and thinking you can fool the regulators? 90% of the transactions come from sports betting and you still have the nerve to call it a financial derivative... what a joke.

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MetaMasked

· 12-04 23:50

Ha, raising $11B can help you dodge regulation? What a joke, 90% comes from sports betting and you still dare to call it derivatives 😅 --- To put it bluntly, it just wears a financial disguise, but at its core it's still gambling. Sooner or later, regulators will crack down. --- Paradigm and Sequoia pouring in money won't help; the law won't give way just because of media partnerships. --- How much are CNN and CNBC endorsements really worth? When the cease and desist comes, it's game over. --- This is a typical "eat the meat first, pay the bill later" scenario. They'll cry once the rules are clear. --- When compliance costs explode, then we'll see if $1B in funding is enough. --- In my opinion, it's only a matter of time before they crash in Connecticut. This business was never stable to begin with.

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GateUser-5854de8b

· 12-04 23:47

Haha, this is hilarious. Claiming that derivatives aren't gambling, but 90% of the trading volume is on sports events... That argument is way too forced. --- Did Paradigm and Sequoia really get fooled, or did they just want to take a gamble before regulators catch on? --- Media partnerships won't save them at all. Once a cease and desist arrives, it's all over. --- I just want to know how they manage to sound so righteous in front of their legal team... Isn't this just a gambling platform disguised as a financial service? --- Why is it valued at $11B? If regulators crack down, everything's gone. --- Connecticut and Nevada have already started to go after them. This time, they've really pushed it too far. --- Even companies raising billions have to bow their heads; the Web3 space still thinks it can bypass regulation? --- Saying "derivatives" is just skirting the line. Regulators aren't stupid.

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