BTC and Nasdaq show a negative correlation of -0.43. Does historical data suggest a turning point is approaching?

Question

[Crypto World] There's an interesting signal lately: the 20-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to -0.43. That number might not seem like much, but if you look back at history, you'll spot something—similar negative correlations appeared in both 2021 and 2024. And what happened after that? The market saw a decent rebound each time.Right now, Bitcoin has pulled back 27% from its high, while the Nasdaq is still hovering near its peak—the two are clearly diverging. Based on past experience, this kind of decoupling usually isn't a bad thing; in fact, it could signal a turning point for prices. Of course, history doesn’t simply repeat itself, but this signal is definitely worth watching—the market might be gearing up for its next move.

AirdropSkeptic · Accepted Answer

A correlation of -0.43? Could this be the same story as last time... I believe in historical patterns, just worried this time might be different.

StablecoinAnxiety · Answer

-0.43 looks really tempting, but I always feel like this logic gets used over and over again in the crypto space...

Are historical signals reliable? Honestly, it's a bit questionable. Last time people said the same thing—what happened then?

A rebound will definitely come, just not sure if it's today or next year. My wallet is already flat.

"Decoupling" sounds fancy, but really it just means nobody knows when to buy, haha.

27% drawdowns are for the reserved projects; I've been at -60% for ages, waiting for your inflection point.

You see this kind of analysis every week, but it seems like very few actually make money?

The Nasdaq is holding high, btc is rolling on the floor—can someone tell me what kind of omen this is...

MagicBean · Answer

History repeating itself? -0.43 is indeed an interesting number. Last time after such a decoupling, the market took off. Could this be a signal again this time?

OnchainArchaeologist · Answer

Wait a minute, can -0.43 really predict a rebound? It feels like every time someone digs through history to find patterns, but in the end it’s still up to BTC.

The saying "history doesn't repeat itself" is right—don’t put too much faith in these correlation coefficients.

After a 27% pullback people are still waiting for a turning point—might as well just look at the trading volume.

I’ve heard this decoupling theory more than once, feels like it’s being overinterpreted.

There are so many signals before a rebound, but very few actually make money. Still have to wait for the market to move on its own.

governance_ghost · Answer

Historical signals are indeed worth paying attention to, but can the number -0.43 really tell us anything? It feels like every time someone digs through history to find patterns, it all comes down to luck in the end.

I heard similar arguments around this time last year, and what happened? Ultimately, you still have to look at the fundamentals. Decoupling could be a turning point, or it could just be a trap.

BTC has pulled back 27% in this round... Wait, the Nasdaq is still at a high? This logic seems a bit off—is there something we're misunderstanding?

Whether there’s a rebound depends on whether the Fed takes the rate-cut medicine. Historical patterns can’t be relied on.

This time really is different—I believe it.

GasFeeCrier · Answer

History repeats itself? They say this every time, but what about the results... Can a 27% pullback be stopped?