#美国经济政策变化 Looking back, I have witnessed many changes in economic cycles. The strange divergence in US economic data this time inevitably reminds me of the various signs before the 2008 financial crisis. Back then, the job market appeared strong, but there were hidden concerns in the economic fundamentals.

Now, the labor market seems to be cooling down, but GDP and productivity remain robust. This contradiction is puzzling and presents a policy dilemma for the Federal Reserve. History tells us that divergences in economic indicators often signal major turning points.

I have personally experienced the painful consequences of policy mistakes many times. When policymakers get lost in confusion, they often make the wrong decisions. The key now is to closely monitor the trends of various indicators and not be blindly optimistic.

From past experience, economic expansion without job growth is hard to sustain. If productivity cannot continue to support GDP growth, the risk of recession will rise significantly. We must stay vigilant, prepare in advance, and be ready for a possible economic winter.

History always repeats itself in remarkable ways. The current economic predicament may be the prelude to a new cycle. As witnesses, it is our responsibility to learn from past lessons and provide guidance for future decisions.