#美联储降息预期 Looking back, I can't help but feel a surge of emotions. After the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve launched large-scale quantitative easing, ushering in more than a decade of ultra-low interest rates. Now, the market is once again filled with expectations of rate cuts. According to CME data, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December has exceeded 65%. This reminds me of the rate-cutting cycle in 2019, which also started at the end of the year.

History is always strikingly similar. Whenever the economy faces downward pressure, rate cuts become the market's lifeline. But we must not forget that excessively loose monetary policy also plants the seeds of inflation. In 2021, inflation soared, forcing an abrupt reversal to rate hikes—a profound lesson.

This time, the Federal Reserve seems more cautious. Williams' remarks are seen as high-level consensus, but the wording remains vague. This reminds us that policy shifts are often gradual and not achieved overnight. Investors need to remain rational, recognizing the possibility of rate cuts while also being alert to the risks posed by excessive market optimism. After all, the tug-of-war between policy and market expectations has never ceased.