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Coffee Market Shakeup: Brazil's Drought Sends Arabica Prices Flying
Brazil’s hitting a dry spell and coffee traders are freaking out—literally. March arabica futures jumped +7.40% today after weather data showed Minas Gerais (Brazil’s biggest arabica zone) got only 26.4mm rain last week, a 49% shortfall from normal.
Here’s the plot twist: Trump just exempted Brazilian coffee from tariffs yesterday, which should’ve crushed prices, but nope—supply concerns are winning.
The real story:
Long-term wild card: StoneX says Brazil’s 2026/27 crop will surge +29% YoY to 47.2 million bags. That’s a LOT of supply coming. Global coffee production also trending up—USDA pegging 2025/26 at record 178.68 million bags.
So tldr: Brazil’s dry = short-term support for prices rn. But Vietnam ramping + Brazil’s monster crop coming = trouble ahead for bulls. Classic commodity squeeze play.