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Oil market caught between two forces: bullish stock rally pushing demand expectations up, but Ukraine peace talks threatening Russian sanctions removal and flooding global supply. WTI crude +0.45% today, but gains capped.
Key headwinds: Vortexa data shows crude stored on idle tankers hit 114.31M barrels (highest in 2.25 years), signaling oversupply concerns. OPEC flipped its Q3 outlook from -400k bpd deficit to +500k bpd surplus as US output beat expectations. IEA warns 2026 could see record 4.0M bpd glut.
What's propping prices: Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries knocked out 13-20% of refining capacity, cutting exports to 1.7M bpd (3-year low). US crude inventories still -5% below seasonal average. Baker Hughes rig count at 419 (near 4-year lows).
The Trump factor: 28-point peace plan on Ukraine has Zelenskiy considering talks. If Russia sanctions lift, watch out below.