Oil prices just caught a bid today—WTI crude up 0.45% and gasoline holding steady. Here's the tension: stocks are rallying hard, which usually signals "people trust the economy and need more energy." That's bullish for oil.

But here's the wrinkle: if the Ukraine war actually ends (Trump just dropped a 28-point peace plan), sanctions on Russian oil could lift, flooding the market with cheap supply. That's bearish.

The numbers tell a messy story:
• US crude stockpiles are 5% below their 5-year average (tight)
• But OPEC just flipped Q3 from a supply deficit to a 500k bpd surplus
• Russia's export capacity is crippled—Ukraine has knocked out 13-20% of its refining capacity
• IEA is warning of a record 4.0M bpd oil surplus coming in 2026

Bottom line: Near-term support from supply crunches and geopolitical risk, but the medium-term setup screams oversupply. Oil's getting squeezed between bullish demand signals and bearish supply fundamentals.