MicroStrategy's stock price has fallen quite sharply this year - a drop of 41%, while its peers Riot has risen by 24.5% and CleanSpark has also risen by 5.7%. MSTR, on the other hand, has been disappointing.
Where is the root cause? The valuation is outrageous. The forward P/S ratio is 99.25 times, while the industry average is only 2.92 times. Even Coinbase (7.91 times) and Riot (6.4 times) seem much more reasonable.
But that being said, MSTR has its fundamentals:
1. **Bitcoin inventory monster level** — As of the end of October, holding over 640,000 BTC, with a book value of 71 billion US dollars. This year has achieved a 26% BTC profit, earning 12.9 billion.
2. **Invincible Financing Ability**——In Q3, raised $5.1 billion, and then replenished $8.95 million through various ATM projects. This capital operation system can support continuous bottom-fishing for Bitcoin.
3. **Software business is gaining traction** — Software revenue increased by 10.9% year-on-year, with subscription services skyrocketing by 65.4%. This segment can hedge against cryptocurrency volatility risk.
4. **Profit Expectation Reversal** — The management maintains an annual guidance of $80 per share, expecting to turn a profit in 2025 (compared to a loss of $6.72 per share in 2024).
**Core contradiction**: Long-term logic is clear (Bitcoin + software dual drive), but short-term is suppressed by crypto volatility and valuation bubbles. What about the current position? **Mainly wait and see**, discuss when valuation and market sentiment cool down.
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MicroStrategy's stock price has fallen quite sharply this year - a drop of 41%, while its peers Riot has risen by 24.5% and CleanSpark has also risen by 5.7%. MSTR, on the other hand, has been disappointing.
Where is the root cause? The valuation is outrageous. The forward P/S ratio is 99.25 times, while the industry average is only 2.92 times. Even Coinbase (7.91 times) and Riot (6.4 times) seem much more reasonable.
But that being said, MSTR has its fundamentals:
1. **Bitcoin inventory monster level** — As of the end of October, holding over 640,000 BTC, with a book value of 71 billion US dollars. This year has achieved a 26% BTC profit, earning 12.9 billion.
2. **Invincible Financing Ability**——In Q3, raised $5.1 billion, and then replenished $8.95 million through various ATM projects. This capital operation system can support continuous bottom-fishing for Bitcoin.
3. **Software business is gaining traction** — Software revenue increased by 10.9% year-on-year, with subscription services skyrocketing by 65.4%. This segment can hedge against cryptocurrency volatility risk.
4. **Profit Expectation Reversal** — The management maintains an annual guidance of $80 per share, expecting to turn a profit in 2025 (compared to a loss of $6.72 per share in 2024).
**Core contradiction**: Long-term logic is clear (Bitcoin + software dual drive), but short-term is suppressed by crypto volatility and valuation bubbles. What about the current position? **Mainly wait and see**, discuss when valuation and market sentiment cool down.