Daily Analysis of #ETH

1️⃣ Structural interpretation ETH's trend is deeply linked with BTC, and due to its higher volatility, it is often a disaster zone for liquidation. Personally, I believe that if it cannot break the 2850-60 range on a 4-hour timeframe, the possibility of testing new lows again is very high. Even if the sentiment is right, touching 2400 is not out of the question.
2️⃣ Fund Flow & On-chain & Exchange Dynamic Exchange Dynamics (Market "Sentiment" Thermometer): ETH is a major area for liquidations. Data shows that in the past 24 hours, long positions in ETH had liquidations totaling $19.3342 million, while short positions had liquidations of $15.0311 million. Furthermore, the largest single liquidation also occurred on the ETH trading pair at Binance. This indicates that during the downturn, the leverage risk in the ETH contract market is more pronounced than that of BTC.
3️⃣ Do not set up trading strategies under a dangerous wall during the day. Before BTC stabilizes, ETH is unlikely to have an independent bullish trend. Ethereum is also in a stage of overselling, and now it needs various recoveries. During the day, we should first look for recovery; whether it's a rebound or sideways movement is fine. I believe around 3000 is a good point to consider increasing the position. If it rebounds after breaking 2850, then I think the probability of a second drop testing the previous low will significantly increase. Here we focus on the actual market trend, and my thoughts are also a prediction of the market in advance. If you're not confident trading during the day, we can continue discussing in the live stream at night.
4️⃣ Risk Warning High Volatility Liquidation Risk: The ETH derivatives market has high leverage, and if prices continue to fall, it may trigger a series of liquidations far exceeding BTC, leading to a more severe "long squeeze" scenario. Market Correlation Risk: The price movement of ETH is highly correlated with BTC. If the big brother BTC cannot stop falling and continues to decline, the little brother ETH will have a hard time standing alone, and the decline may be magnified. Ecological Confidence Risk: Continued sharp declines may impact developers' and users' confidence in the Ethereum ecosystem. If this leads to a shrinkage in on-chain activities, it will in turn weaken its fundamentals and value support.