#比特币行情观察 After the panic, some technical indicators began to flicker with a faint light. Recently, the market for Bitcoin has caused many frens to exclaim "I've fallen too much." The ongoing weakness has indeed brought market sentiment down to freezing point. However, amidst this pessimism, some analytical views have started to emerge, suggesting that Bitcoin may be forming a short-term bottom and could soon welcome a decent rebound. Is this a "dead cat bounce" or a reversal signal? Let's calmly look at what they have to say.

1: Market sentiment has entered "extreme fear"

As the saying goes, "Market conditions are born out of despair." Currently, the fear sentiment in the market has reached an extreme level. Interestingly, while ordinary investors are feeling panic, some large investors known as "whales" have quietly begun to build long positions. This combination of "public panic" and "large investors bottom-fishing" has historically appeared many times at the tail end of a downturn, often signaling that a rebound may not be far off.

2: Key indicators enter the "oversold zone"

For technical analysts, a very important indicator—the RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the weekly chart—is currently approaching the level of 30. You can simply understand this indicator as a "stamina meter." When it is below 30, it indicates that the market is "overdrawn" and in an "oversold" state, meaning it has fallen too much and too quickly. Analyst Mister Crypto pointed out that in the past few cycles, whenever the weekly RSI approaches 30, Bitcoin often forms a bottom, whether large or small, triggering a rebound. He used very direct words: "Boom (touch bottom)." Please note: This does not guarantee that a bull market will return immediately, but it usually means that the risk of continued decline in the short term is reduced, and the probability of a rebound is increasing.

Three: The price is too far from the "bull-bear dividing line."

Another point worth paying attention to is the relationship between the price of Bitcoin and its 50-week moving average (which can be understood as a long-term lifeline). Currently, the price of Bitcoin has significantly deviated from this moving average (which is currently around $102,000). Historical data shows that in previous cycles, when the price of Bitcoin was excessively below this moving average, a "rebound" effect often occurred, just like a rubber band that is stretched too long will snap back. The current expectation is that Bitcoin may initiate a rebound, trying to return to around $100,000, to touch this important moving average. Macro environment: the wind may be stopping Apart from the signals from the market itself, there are also some potential benefits in the external macro environment. The market currently generally expects that the Federal Reserve's ongoing tightening "quantitative tightening (QT)" policy may soon come to an end, and there may even be a possibility of interest rate cuts in the future. If this comes true, it would be equivalent to "loosening the bindings" for the global market, and liquidity would improve. As a global risk asset, Bitcoin is very sensitive to such changes and is usually seen as good news.

Summary and Reminder: Optimistic but Cautious

Overall, from a technical perspective, multiple indicators show that there is indeed a demand for a short-term rebound in Bitcoin due to overselling. Coupled with expectations that macro monetary policy may shift, external conditions for a rebound have been created. However, we must be clear-headed about the fact that:
Rebound is not a reversal: Even if a rebound occurs, it is more likely to be a technical correction against the previous sharp fall. To initiate a new round of bull market, more solid fundamental support is needed, such as sustained inflows of funds from more large institutions and a real explosion of blockchain applications.
There are obstacles ahead: The range of $100,000 to $110,000 is an important psychological and technical threshold, where a large amount of previous trapped positions have accumulated, and the price rebound to that level will face enormous selling pressure.
The market remains fragile: any international situation, regulatory news, or other "black swan" events could easily disrupt the rhythm of the rebound.