#BTC Update

In my previous updates, I told you that I was breaking a breakout from the descending trend and a visit above 90k rather than a visit to the liquidity zone at 85k - which would break the LTF ascending structure - and here we are above 90k!

Bitcoin broke above the first AVWAP and is now just below the one from 107.3k - the last local top that started the descending channel. This level is also in confluence with the Monday Range invalidation. If BTC flips the zone between here and 93k (the VAL of the 1-year range), its target will be 96.6k which is the POC of the range.

If Bitcoin can't break out of the AVWAP here at 91.8k, it will pull back to 89.6-90k until it makes a stronger move to break it.

The EQ of the range at 86.2k is now the main support.

If the LTF ascending structure is going to continue, I wouldn't expect a pullback deeper than 89k, followed by a breakout from the AVWAP at 91.8k. The US is off for Thanksgiving, and that's another reason for not getting deeper pullbacks.

Another way to look at it is that Bitcoin is going to break out of the descending structure if it breaks out from the arc which is going to be around 93k-94k during the weekend.

Despite many people calling it a "dead cat bounce" Bitcoin currently has a healthy bounce backed up by macro. The odds of a rate cut in the December meeting is up to 85% from 30% only a week ago. The QT is set to end on Dec 1 (even though the number was small, it is still important) and the effects of the government shutdown will vanish in the coming weeks.

I already told you that Bitcoin was going to run back at least to 110k in the worst case scenario. It is playing out now. At 110k, we will decide if the cat is dead or not. Calling it now doesn't help anyone - neither does bearposting.