#特朗普加密货币政策新方向 Fed's leadership change is imminent? The market has already begun to bet on the next round of easing cycle.

The situation in Washington is becoming increasingly tense. Trump's dissatisfaction with the current Fed chair is no secret, and now the crucial question is: who will take over this position?

The Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett, is currently the most favored candidate. This economic advisor's recent statement was very direct - "It is time to cut interest rates now." With that one sentence, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond immediately fell, breaking through the 4% mark. The bond market's reaction has already made everything clear: the market is betting on a more dovish monetary policy.

Looking back at the previous term, the conflict between Trump and Powell was almost public. On one side was a president eager to stimulate the economy, and on the other was a central bank chairman who insisted on independence. This tug-of-war made the White House quite headache.

But this time the situation might be different.

The challenge facing Treasury Secretary Basent is delicate: he needs to find a candidate that aligns with the White House's intentions while avoiding market panic over the "collapse of central bank independence." According to the timeline, there should be clear news before the Christmas holidays. Besides Hassett, the previously mentioned shortlist of three candidates also includes former official Walsh and current board member Waller.

This could be a turning point for the crypto market.

What does a more dovish Fed mean? Lower interest rates, more abundant liquidity, and a weaker dollar—these are all catalysts for risk assets. The memory of the last bull market is still fresh: when the cost of capital is low enough, hot money flows into high-risk, high-return areas. Mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum often perform the best during easing cycles.

Of course, the White House is also trying to cool down the market: "Don't guess, wait for the official announcement." But smart money never waits for the official announcement; they are already positioning themselves in advance. The fluctuations in the bond market and the slight rise in cryptocurrencies are all hinting at the same signal.

Remember the iron law of the market: buy during panic and add positions during greed. At this point, it may very well be the eve of the next cycle.