Hayes: Bitcoin Bottom Is Near, But There's a Catch - U.Today

UToday · 2025-11-21T17:52:17+00:00

Arthur Hayes suggests Bitcoin may be nearing its lowest point after a significant sell-off but warns against early buying. He attributes the downturn to reduced US dollar liquidity and believes a stock market correction could lead to renewed liquidity injections, potentially boosting Bitcoin prices to $200,000 by January 2026.

UToday

2025-11-21 17:52:17

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A “weathervane” for liquidity
Will the Fed change course? Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has opined that Bitcoin might be close to bottoming out following a truly violent sell-off that took place earlier this week

That said, Hayes has cautioned traders not to buy the dip prematurely, claiming that they have to wait for a steeper sell-off in the stock market.

A “weathervane” for liquidity

In a Nov. 17 blog post, Hayes explicitly attributed the cryptocurrency market sell-off to reduced US dollar liquidity, which is the amount of money circulating in the system

According to him, Bitcoin’s price primarily reflects expectations about future USD liquidity.

Earlier this year, the cryptocurrency managed to rally to all-time highs due to a combination of strong ETF inflows, liquidity-positive rhetoric, as well as treasury companies buying a lot of coins.

Now, however, liquidity is contracting once again, and Strategy’s premium has collapsed. Hence, Michael Saylor’s company is no longer capable of raising capital efficiently

Will the Fed change course?

Bitcoin’s plunge has coincided with the fading odds of the Fed implementing another rate cut this year

However, Hayes is convinced that a significant stock market correction could potentially restart QE-like liquidity injections

Once money printing resumes, Bitcoin could potentially surge all the way to $200,000.

Fundstrat’s Tom Lee recently predicted that the BTC price could reach the aforementioned as early as January 2026 despite the severity of the ongoing sell-off.

BTC-4,39%

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