#SOL has the bull run ended?

To answer this question, it may be helpful to first take a look at the latest views of Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, from Thursday.

He believes that although investments related to artificial intelligence (AI) are driving the market to form a bubble, investors do not need to rush to liquidate their positions.

The current market conditions are not exactly similar to the bubble peaks witnessed by investors in 1999 and 1929. Instead, based on some indicators he monitors, the US market is currently about 80% of that level.

This does not mean that investors should sell their stocks. "I want to reiterate that many things may still rise before the bubble bursts," Dalio said.

In our view, the fall on 11.21 was not an unexpected "black swan" event, but rather a collective squeeze after a highly consistent expectation, which also exposed some key issues.

The real liquidity of the global market is very fragile.

Currently, "Technology + AI" has become a crowded track for global capital, and any small turning point can trigger a chain reaction.

In particular, an increasing number of quantitative trading strategies, ETFs, and passive funds are supporting market liquidity, which has also changed the market structure. The more automated trading strategies there are, the easier it is to form a "stampede in the same direction."

So, in our opinion, this fall is essentially:

The "structural big dump" caused by automated trading and excessive capital congestion.

Moreover, an interesting phenomenon is that this fall was led by Bitcoin, marking the first time that cryptocurrency has truly entered the global asset pricing chain.

BTC and ETH are no longer fringe assets; they have become the thermometer of global risk assets and are at the forefront of sentiment.

Based on the above analysis, we believe that the market has not truly entered a bear market, but rather is in a stage of high volatility, and the market needs time to recalibrate the expectations of "growth + interest rates."

The investment cycle of AI will not end immediately, but the era of "mindless growth" is over. The market will shift from expectation-driven to profit realization, both in the US stock market and the A-share market.

As the risk asset that fell the earliest, had the highest leverage, and the weakest liquidity during this round of falling cycle, cryptocurrencies experienced the biggest dump, but rebounds often appear first.