Recently, the pullback in Ethereum has been largely driven by macro factors, primarily the Fed's expectations for interest rate cuts in December 2025 being lowered repeatedly.

I remember buying the dip around 3300 in early November, the logic at that time was very simple:

US government shutdown crisis averted → Market sentiment improves → ETH rebounds

Indeed, there is more than a 10% return.

But recently the situation has changed, and the market's expectations for a rate cut in December have weakened, $ETH once falling below the 2900 mark.

The latest data also confirms this point:

The unemployment rate in the U.S. for September is 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, reaching a new high since October 2021.

CME's "Fed Watch" shows that the probability of a rate cut in December is only 29.8%.

However, the good news is that the bearish factors are basically priced in.

It feels more like a "calm period of emotions" now, just waiting for the next catalyst.