Those who keep talking about Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle, please stop that cycle is gone. And no, we’re not entering a multi-year bear market.

$BTC is still the market leader, and what you’re seeing right now is simply long-term holders taking profits, which naturally slows the price down.

Since last year, every time long-term holder supply goes down, Bitcoin dips as well.

It happened in April, in August, and it’s happening again now. These are just distribution phases. Once enough long-term holders have taken profit, Bitcoin will be freed up and will move higher again.

The reason this price move is stronger than previous ones is also linked to the U.S. government shutdown, the economy slows, bank reserves fall, and liquidity gets drained from the system, so risk assets like BTC are hit first.

Either way, both the long-term holder distribution and the U.S. government shutdown are temporary dynamics.