The recent trend of DOGE is really a bit confusing yet somewhat understandable.

To say it is incomprehensible is because from a technical perspective it is already overbought—RSI has crossed 70, which should normally indicate a pullback. But to say it is comprehensible is because several signals are simply too obvious: Musk started "acting up" again last night, posting three dog head emojis in a row and even changing his profile picture to the laser eyes version. The familiar formula, the familiar taste. The last time he did this, DOGE skyrocketed from 5 cents to 74 cents, nearly a 15-fold increase.
This morning he shared a meme again, and the comments section is full of "to the moon." Whenever this guy speaks up, the market shakes three times.
Let's take another look at the ETF situation. Bitwise's application for a DOGE spot ETF has been queued at the SEC, and rumors suggest there might be news around November 26. Remember the three days when the Bitcoin ETF was approved? BTC surged by 30% directly. The market cap of DOGE is much smaller than that of Bitcoin, so if it gets approved and institutional funds flood in, this volatility is not to be taken lightly.
On-chain data is quite interesting. Today, 87 large addresses that had been dormant for three years suddenly activated and transferred 420 million DOGE to a major exchange. At first glance, it looks like a dump is about to happen? However, Glassnode data shows that the DOGE balance on exchanges has dropped to its lowest point in three years. The chips are locked up, which looks more like whales are washing and accumulating.
From a technical perspective, the weekly MACD has just formed a golden cross, and the price is stuck at $0.186 - which is exactly at the Fibonacci 0.618 golden ratio level. Looking back through history, in the previous three instances when it reached this position, the subsequent increase has started at a minimum of 5 times.
Some people are calling for $7.2, and even big influencers are calling for $15. I don't know if it can reach that, but based on the growth ratio from that wave of market in 2021, plus the catalysts of the ETF and Musk, there is indeed room for imagination. I personally entered at $0.16 with 20 million coins, and I'm currently up about 15%. Recently, I've been considering whether to add another 5 million coins to my position.
The current price is hovering around $0.18. Should I wait for it to really rise to $1 before chasing? That would significantly increase the cost. Of course, the crypto market has always been full of reversals and surprises; this is just my personal observation and does not constitute any advice.
What do you think?