When will the US government shutdown end?

In recent weeks, the US government shutdown has been like an ongoing prolonged farce, with almost all departments forced to hit the pause button—from the Treasury Department to the airport system. As of now, the shutdown has lasted about 36 days, making it the longest in US history.

What the markets can feel beyond the political deadlock is a sense of "liquidity being squeezed." The shutdown has set a new record. Treasury spending has been frozen, some budgets cannot be executed, and market liquidity continues to tighten. Last week, the SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) suddenly rose, indicating higher short-term borrowing costs, and the banking system's funds are beginning to tighten. Poor liquidity is a highly sensitive signal for the financial system, and the recent high volatility in US stocks actually reflects this.

The issues are not limited to finance. The political clock in November is ticking: November 4th is Election Day, November 7th is Congress's recess, and the end of the month marks the Thanksgiving travel peak. If air traffic controllers and TSA staff continue to go unpaid, the US flight system could grind to a halt. At that point, public pressure will far exceed the fiscal negotiations themselves, and the political deadlock will become unsustainable.

Looking back at history, government shutdowns often only end when reality spirals out of control. The 2019 shutdown, for example, led to airport delays and salary disruptions, sparking public backlash that ultimately forced a compromise. This time, the background is even more complex—higher fiscal deficits, a closer debt ceiling, and more fragile market liquidity.

In terms of timing and pressure points, the political and economic thresholds are almost overlapping in early November. If the shutdown continues until before Thanksgiving, the US could face not only transportation chaos but also a second wave of market confidence decline. Based on current signs, I tend to believe that the government is very likely to reach a temporary funding agreement within the next 7 to 10 days to end this shutdown.