When the market is in mourning, there are always those who look further ahead.

Bitcoin has indeed been struggling lately, once dropping below $100,000, marking a new low in five months. However, macro analyst Raoul Pal has given the market a shot of confidence—he believes this downturn is just the darkness before the dawn.

Pal's logic is clear: the current growing pains are precisely a sign that large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus is about to arrive. And this is exactly the fuse for the rebound of crypto assets.

His judgment is based on two key points. First, the quantitative tightening policy is nearing its end, and second, fiscal spending will restart after the U.S. government shutdown ends. The data is straightforward—about $10 trillion of government debt will need to be rolled over in the next 12 months, which will force authorities to release between $250 billion and $350 billion in fiscal funds. With more money, the dollar will weaken, and risk assets will naturally benefit.

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, is also in the same camp. He directly pointed out that the decline in Bitcoin since July is highly correlated with the 8% contraction in U.S. dollar liquidity. He predicts that as the government shutdown comes to an end, the balance of the U.S. Treasury general account will decrease, liquidity will return, and the price of cryptocurrencies will naturally rise.

Hayes recently reminded everyone in his column not to rush—"invisible QE" will need to wait a bit longer before it starts, and volatility will have to be endured for a while.

In addition to liquidity being the main theme, Pal also mentioned that the CLARITY Act could clear obstacles for institutional entry. Coupled with potential interest rate cuts, adjustments to bank capital rules, and possible stimulus policies from both China and Japan, a macro environment of multiple favorable factors is taking shape. Pal believes this trend could continue until the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.

Back to the current market. This week, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has shrunk by nearly $400 billion, which looks frightening, but analysts emphasize that this is mainly due to leveraged liquidations and forced liquidations, not a collapse on the demand side.

Institutional traders are still on the sidelines, waiting for clearer signals after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates at the end of October.

Short-term fluctuations are inevitable, but from multiple dimensions, the long-term logic has not been broken. The rebound space may be larger than expected.