Bitcoin Technical Analysis Daily

July 5, 2025 | Key Analysis During Asian Session
1. Macro Trend Positioning
Bitcoin is currently in a large-level box range between 100,000 and 110,000, and this oscillation structure has lasted for 12 trading days. The price boundaries for the year are clearly defined between the historical high pressure zone at 112,000 and the strong support band at 98,000. At this stage, the price focus is maintained in the upper half of the box (around 108,300), suggesting a delicate balance between bullish and bearish forces.

2. Analysis of Core Technical Indicators
1. Bollinger Bands
- The daily channel has narrowed to 101,742-110,600 (bandwidth has shrunk to 4.1%)
- The middle track line shows a slight upward tilt of 0.8°, reflecting that there is still potential upward momentum in the market.
2. Moving Average System Matrix
5MA 107,963 flat and stable 10MA 107,639 gently rising 30MA 106,298 steadily upward 60MA 105,800 long-term support
3. Momentum Indicator Divergence
- MACD Indicator:
The golden cross structure on the zero axis is facing challenges (fast line 0.38/slow line 0.41), with bullish volume bars reducing by 15%, indicating that the retracement pressure after the upward move to 110,484 has not yet been fully released.
- RSI Indicator: Stands high at the 69.2 overbought area and forms a dead cross, indicating clear demand for technical correction.

Three, Key Price Level System
Resistance above 110,500, historical strong resistance 112,000, central support 105,300, intraday support 106,200
Four, Asian session battlefield map (09:00-12:00 UTC+8)
- Micro Box: 107,600-108,300 (Amplitude only 0.65%)
- Long and Short Frontline: 108,500 resistance line contested repeatedly
- Volatility Characteristics: The ATR value has dropped to 382, reaching a monthly low, as the market enters the eve of directional decision.

Five, Professional Trading Strategy Deployment
Short Selling Strategy Configuration
- Ambush zone: 108,500-108,800 range
- Breakthrough Alert: Closing stable at 108,800 for 1 hour in a row
- Stop-loss fortress: 109,500 (risk exposure ≤ 0.8%)

Bullish Defense Plan
- Positioning Area: 106,200 (Test Position) / 105,300 (Main Position)
- Strategy Ban: A rapid breakdown of more than 1.2% on the 15-minute level.

6. Battlefield Risk Warning
1. Derivatives Movement: CME open interest dropped by 12%, funding rate at 0.018% (bullish overheating)
2. Event Minefield: Tonight's FOMC Meeting Minutes Released
3. Position Iron Law: Single position ≤ 3%, total risk exposure < 15%