ETH/USDT Daily Technical Analysis Report (July 5, 2025)

1. Review of yesterday's market
1. Price Trajectory:
- Asian session (09:00 UTC+8): Starting the downward channel from 2601 USD
- First round decline: $2529 (-2.77%)
- Technical rebound: 2556 USD (+1.07%) failed to effectively hold above the 60-day moving average
- Second bottom test: during the US trading session, it reached 2474 USD (-3.21%)
- Closing range fluctuation: 2501-2521 USD (±1.9%)

2. Current Technical Analysis (1 Hour K-Line)
1. Bollinger Bands Indicator:
- Narrowing Opening (Volatility 12.8%)
- Upper Band 2567 USD | Middle Band 2518 USD | Lower Band 2469 USD
- The price continues to test the mid-track resistance (3 attempts without breaking through)

2. Moving Average System:
- Short-term moving average golden cross: 5MA(2510)↑ × 10MA(2498)→
- Key support level:
• 240MA: 2472 USD
• 360MA: 2437 USD

3. Momentum Indicator:
- MACD:
• Convergence of fast and slow lines (difference 0.38)
• Potential Golden Cross Pattern
• Bullish volume bars are weak (+0.12)
- RSI(14): 58.7 (close to overbought threshold)

Three, Key Price Levels
1. Resistance Level:
- Immediate resistance: 2539 USD (previous high + Fibonacci 23.6%)
- Strong Resistance: 2619 USD

2. Support Level:
- Primary Support: 2469 USD (Bollinger Band Lower Bound)
- Strong Support: 2431 USD

4. Market Analysis
1. Trend Judgment:
- Short term: Range fluctuation (2501-2521 USD)
- Mid-term: If the 2501 level is held, there is hope to test the 2536-2541 area.

2. Volatility Characteristics:
- Amplitude narrowing (current ATR value 22.3)
- Mid-track contest between long and short (25178 USD)

5. Trading Strategy Recommendations
1. Bearish Strategy:
- Entry range: 2541-2551 USD (risk-reward ratio 1:1.5)
- Additional position: 2581 USD (stop loss space 2.5%)
- Stop-loss suggestion: 2621 USD (breakthrough the previous high)

2. Bullish Strategy:
- Trigger Condition: 2469 Support Validation
- Target price: 2536 USD (potential profit 2.7%)
- Stop Loss Level: 2429 USD (-1.6%)

Six, Risk Warning
1. Key focus:
- Market sentiment ahead of the US non-farm data
- SEC's progress on Ethereum ETF approval
2. Volatility Warning:
- A breakout above 2567 USD may trigger short covering.
- A break below 2431 will open up space below 2401.