Recently, the Bitcoin market has shown significant volatility characteristics, with a one-sided downward trend in price movements, breaking through the support level of 104800 and reaching a low of 103300 points. Although today's price has seen a slight rebound, it is still hovering within a high-level oscillation range. It is worth noting that the daily trading volume on the chain has dropped to its lowest level since October 2023, indicating a clear divergence between market activity and price performance.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the U.S. Consumer Price Index for May (CPI) showed moderate performance, with a year-on-year rate of 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%, which provided some support for risk assets. At the same time, the easing of U.S.-China trade relations has also boosted market confidence in cryptocurrencies. In addition, the progress of legislation related to stablecoins and the trend of institutional investors increasing their holdings of Bit, such as the participation of large institutions like BlackRock and several listed companies, has further driven the upward movement of Bit prices.

In terms of market sentiment, the daily trend channel of Bitcoin has turned red, with the 20-day moving average (EMA20) becoming a key dividing line. If the price falls below this moving average, it may signal the end of the one-sided bullish trend.

Technical analysis shows that the recent low of ( yesterday at 103300) forms a recent support level, while the 88000-90000 range constitutes a stronger bottom support area based on the MVRV data of short-term holders. The main resistance levels are concentrated in the 105400-112000 range, with 112000 being the recent high.

Regarding future trends, the current market is in a consolidation phase, which may be accumulating energy for the next wave of increases. The market expects to reach a new high around mid-June, but investors should also be wary of the risk of a rapid pullback.

Personal Opinion: The current technical and fundamental aspects of Bitcoin show a certain degree of divergence. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the flow of institutional funds and changes in the regulatory environment, as these factors may become key influences on market direction in the short term.