2025-06-19 07:28:52

I took a look, and after Nick's post, the probability of no interest rate cut in September has risen to 35.3%. Although the rise is not significant, it is indeed noticeable that investors are not very strong on the idea of a rate cut in September.

So it's still a bit early to talk about interest rate cuts now. In the short term, the focus should still be on geopolitical conflicts, and if we extend it a bit, it would be tariffs, but fundamentally it still comes down to monetary policy.

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