Geopolitical tensions have again triggered significant Fluctuation in the Crypto Assets market. Following news that the United States may take military action against Iran, the price of Bitcoin has seen a noticeable decline, but the long-term trend remains influenced by multiple factors and still presents various possibilities.

Firstly, from historical experience, Bitcoin often exhibits the trend characteristics of "first falling and then rising" after geopolitical crises. Looking back at the 2020 US-Iran conflict, Bitcoin rebounded after an initial decline due to the Federal Reserve's implementation of loose monetary policies; during the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict, although Bitcoin's price briefly fell below $103,000, it quickly recovered, indicating that market panic selling is usually corrected by policy expectations or safe-haven demand.

Secondly, institutional funds have become a key force in stabilizing the Bitcoin market. Currently, net inflows into spot ETFs have exceeded $46 billion, with financial giants like BlackRock continuously increasing their holdings, while approximately $3 billion in over-the-counter transactions provides important liquidity support to the market. Some financial institutions even predict that by the end of 2025, the price of Bitcoin may reach $200,000, a bullish expectation primarily based on the scarcity brought about by Bitcoin's halving mechanism and the potential improvement in the global macroeconomic environment.

Third, the direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a core variable affecting Bitcoin prices. Currently, the Federal Reserve is maintaining interest rates, but there is divergence in the market regarding the timing of rate cuts. A high interest rate environment suppresses investors' risk appetite, but if geopolitical conflicts trigger concerns about economic recession, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates earlier, which would support Bitcoin. In addition, trade tariff policies may raise inflation levels, thereby affecting the direction of monetary policy.

From a technical perspective and market sentiment, Bitcoin's key support levels are at $101,000 and $75,000, with resistance ranging from $96,000 to $109,000. Currently, market sentiment is in a "greed" state (fear index 71), but geopolitical risks could trigger a pullback. The technical indicator RSI shows that there is short-term overbought conditions, which may lead to a technical adjustment.

If Iran takes strong countermeasures, such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices may rise sharply, increasing economic uncertainty, and Bitcoin may face pressure in the short term. However, in the long run, Bitcoin's anti-inflation characteristics may attract safe-haven funds. Historical data shows that in similar crises, Bitcoin prices often rise due to inflation expectations.

Overall, geopolitical conflicts may lead to short-term fluctuations in Bitcoin, but are unlikely to change its long-term development logic. If the conflict escalates further, the price of Bitcoin may drop first and then rise, with institutional buying and policy adjustments becoming key factors for market rebound. In the long term, the duration of the conflict, the direction of Federal Reserve policy, and the level of institutional capital participation will together determine the price trend of Bitcoin. Investors should closely monitor the situation's development and adjust their investment strategies according to their individual risk tolerance.

Against the backdrop of global geopolitical turmoil, whether Bitcoin can truly become a safe-haven asset in the digital age still requires further market testing.