Could Ethereum surpass Bitcoin in 2026? Key divergence signals reveal a new trend

Since its launch, altcoins have always strived to find their own identity, distancing themselves from Bitcoin’s shadow.

The year 2025 marks a clear turning point: although the Altcoin Season Index (Altcoin Season Index – ASI) is trending downward, there are still standout coins gradually asserting their independence, hinting at a slow but steady shift in market structure.

Ethereum (ETH) is a prime example. Even though ETH underperformed BTC by 1.17% in Q4, the coin has continuously recorded important upgrades, strengthening its position. In that context, the question arises: does this divergence truly bring benefits as we move into 2026?

Market rotation highlights Ethereum’s potential

The market is witnessing an exciting turning point.

After two consecutive months of red candles, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) has fallen below the 60% resistance level and is currently struggling to climb back. At the same time, the Altcoin Season Index (ASI) has also dropped from 43 to 37 at the time of writing.

Typically, when the ASI drops, Bitcoin surges as capital flows into the dominant asset. But this time, both are trending downward, reflecting unusual market behavior that goes beyond familiar rules.

Source: TradingViewAccording to Coin Photon, this phenomenon signals Ethereum’s (ETH) latent strength. Although most capital remains on the sidelines, ETH.D kicked off December with a 2% increase. Additionally, the ETH/BTC ratio rose 2.08%, further supporting the argument that Ethereum is gradually asserting its position and creating relative strength in the market.

Why does this matter? The current divergence may signal a bigger change in investor behavior toward strong Layer-1s. If on-chain indicators continue to confirm this trend, could capital rotation enable Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin in 2026?

While market sentiment weakens, Ethereum’s supply remains tightly locked

ETH staking demonstrates a compelling long-term commitment from the investor community.

On-chain indicators provide clear evidence: the total value of staked ETH (TVS) remains stable above 36 million, despite widespread FUD in the market. This shows that investors are not only continuing to lock ETH for staking rewards but are also seeking sustainable yields.

Moreover, ETH reserves on exchanges are dropping sharply. Since the start of Q4, nearly 1.2 million ETH have been withdrawn from exchanges, showing the HODLers’ strong long-term conviction.

Source: GlassnodeThis resilience stands out even more compared to Bitcoin: only 8.84% of Ethereum remains on exchanges—almost half of BTC’s 14.8%. This clearly reflects the long-term “HODL and staking” mindset in the Ethereum community, while also creating tighter market liquidity.

In this context, Ethereum’s stable strength is no coincidence. Even amid FUD, faith in ETH is reinforced by fundamental factors. The question remains: will this divergence ultimately open up opportunities for outperformance?

On-chain indicators show ETH’s divergence from BTC

2025 marks a pivotal year for Ethereum with two major upgrades: Pectra and Fusaka. On-chain data has clearly shown their positive impact: weekly transaction counts increased from 1.55 million to 1.66 million, indicating growing network adoption.

Alongside the ETH accumulation trend, these upgrades are significantly boosting on-chain activity, reinforcing Ethereum’s status as a dominant Layer-1 both in usage and in the amount of ETH locked long-term. In this context, the outlook for a bullish 2026 becomes increasingly plausible.

Source: TradingViewTechnically, Ethereum is beginning to diverge from Bitcoin, backed by on-chain fundamentals such as increased network interaction and a trend of tight supply accumulation. With this momentum, Ethereum appears well-positioned to capitalize on both network growth and capital rotation, unlocking the potential to outperform Bitcoin in the coming year.

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