How Will Derivatives Market Signals Impact HBAR's Price in 2025?

The article examines how derivative market signals, like futures open interest, funding rates, put/call ratios, and liquidation events, impact HBAR's price in 2025. Core insights include record highs in futures activity suggesting institutional confidence, while bullish sentiment is reinforced by positive funding rates and low put/call ratios. The analysis highlights substantial liquidations due to short squeezes, showcasing market volatility. The piece is targeted at investors looking to understand Hedera's market dynamics and provides valuable forecasts on HBAR's positioning. Key themes include institutional interest, derivatives leverage, and market sentiment.

Futures open interest for HBAR reaches record high of 67.4 million tokens

Hedera's futures market has reached a significant milestone with open interest surging to $450 million, representing a remarkable 100% surge in leveraged positioning. This represents a substantial shift in market dynamics, as the open interest in HBAR futures tokens reached 67.4 million, signaling strong institutional participation in the ecosystem.

The surge in futures activity reflects growing confidence among institutional investors in Hedera's long-term potential. This metric serves as a critical indicator of market maturity and liquidity depth, demonstrating that professional traders view HBAR as a viable instrument for sophisticated trading strategies. The concentration of such significant open interest indicates that major market participants are actively positioning themselves for potential price movements.

Metric Value Significance
Futures Open Interest (USD) $450 Million 100% surge
Open Interest (HBAR Tokens) 67.4 Million Record High
Current HBAR Price $0.14874 Market Reference
Market Cap $7.437 Billion Network Valuation

The expansion of futures volume demonstrates market participants' belief in HBAR's utility and technological foundation. When institutional investors commit significant capital to futures contracts, it typically precedes broader market adoption and increased spot trading activity. This development underscores Hedera's growing recognition among professional traders who increasingly view the network's consensus mechanism and transaction throughput as competitive advantages in the distributed ledger space.

Funding rate turns positive, exceeding 1% as bulls dominate

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HBAR's funding rate has shifted decisively positive in 2025, now exceeding 1% and signaling robust bullish market sentiment. This metric represents the cost traders pay to maintain leveraged long positions, and when it climbs above neutral levels, it indicates strong buying pressure dominating the market.

The surge in positive funding rates reflects accelerating institutional adoption of Hedera. The Nasdaq listing of the Canary HBAR ETF (ticker: HBR) marks a watershed moment for legitimacy, channeling mainstream capital into the ecosystem. As of December 2025, HBAR trades at approximately $0.1487, having recovered significantly from recent lows near $0.13.

Market data demonstrates this shift clearly. HBAR surged 2.5% within a single trading day, jumping from $0.1457 to $0.1494 as institutional flows accelerated and volume spiked 96% above its 24-hour average. The 24-hour trading volume reached $4.5 billion, reflecting genuine market participation rather than speculative noise.

These elevated funding rates create a self-reinforcing dynamic: positive rates attract additional long positions, which further validates the bullish thesis. Analysts project significant upside potential if this momentum persists. The combination of regulatory recognition, institutional infrastructure through ETF access, and favorable derivatives positioning suggests HBAR could attract sustained buying pressure throughout the remainder of the cycle.

Put/call ratio drops to 0.17, indicating strong bullish sentiment

In 2025, HBAR's put/call ratio has dropped to 0.17, a significant metric that reveals strong bullish sentiment among market participants. This ratio measures the volume of put options relative to call options, and when it falls below typical levels, it signals that traders are increasingly confident in upward price movement.

The current 0.17 ratio indicates a substantially elevated call option volume compared to put options. Historically, when this ratio contracts, it reflects a market environment where investors are more willing to bet on price appreciation rather than protection against declines. This contrasts sharply with elevated ratios above 1.0, which typically signal bearish positioning.

According to technical analysis, HBAR is maintaining its position above the critical $0.17 support level, which coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the prior bull phase. The combination of a low put/call ratio and sustained support at this key level suggests market participants expect recovery continuation. The higher low formation currently developing on lower timeframes supports this bullish thesis.

Market data shows that during the initial recovery phase, open interest rose steadily as new long positions opened aggressively, confirming that the bullish sentiment reflected in the 0.17 ratio corresponds with actual trader commitment. This alignment between options positioning and derivative activity strengthens confidence in the current uptrend potential.

Liquidations surge to $15.32 million as short positions get squeezed

Hedera's HBAR token experienced a dramatic market event with liquidations surging to $15.32 million as short sellers faced intense pressure. The token's recent 15% price surge created a self-fulfilling liquidation cascade, with traders scrambling to cover positions above critical resistance levels. This short squeeze phenomenon demonstrates the volatile nature of leveraged trading in cryptocurrency markets.

The liquidation mechanics reveal significant market dynamics at play. Short sellers had positioned themselves expecting downward price movement, but HBAR's unexpected rally forced automated liquidations across multiple trading platforms. At one point, $32 million in additional short positions remained at risk of liquidation, indicating the substantial scale of bearish bets that were unwound during this period.

Liquidation Event Amount
Confirmed Liquidations $15.32 million
Additional Shorts at Risk $32 million
Long Positions Threatened $30 million

The catalyst behind this squeeze stemmed from positive market sentiment surrounding Hedera's ecosystem developments, including increased institutional interest and network activity. As HBAR climbed past key technical resistance levels, margin calls triggered automatically across leveraged trading accounts. This created a feedback loop where liquidations themselves accelerated price upward, forcing further coverage attempts and intensifying losses for remaining short holders throughout the liquidation event.

FAQ

Is HBAR crypto a good investment?

HBAR offers strong potential for long-term investors due to its high transaction throughput and institutional backing. Consider a 2-5% allocation in diversified portfolios.

Can HBAR ever reach $10?

HBAR could reach $10 if enterprise adoption and market conditions improve significantly over the next 7-10 years. Factors like regulatory clarity and competition will influence this potential.

Is HBAR as good as XRP?

HBAR and XRP are both efficient networks, but differ in technology and goals. XRP uses a semi-decentralized blockchain and partners with banks, while HBAR uses hashgraph technology for broader applications.

Will HBAR go to 1 dollar?

Yes, HBAR has reached $1 as of 2025. Its advanced technology, growing ecosystem, and real-world use cases have driven this achievement, validating earlier predictions.

* The information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other recommendation of any sort offered or endorsed by Gate.