Отскок австралийского доллара имеет перспективы! Ожидания повышения процентной ставки со стороны ЦБ поднимают настроение, как банки смотрят на дальнейшую ситуацию?

澳 Australia’s central bank policy direction seems to be turning. The data released by the Bureau of Statistics on December 4th sent a strong signal to the market — household spending in October increased by 1.3% month-on-month, far exceeding the expected 0.6%, and the annual increase reached 5.6%, well above the forecast of 4.6%. How strong is this data? It directly pushed the Australian 3-year government bond yield above 4%, hitting a new high since the beginning of the year.

The AUD/USD has surged accordingly, reaching 0.6615 at the time of writing, refreshing recent highs. Abhijit Surya, an economist at Capital Economics, did not hide his optimism, saying, “The household spending data confirms that the Reserve Bank of Australia will not cut interest rates further, but instead faces pressure to tighten policy ahead of schedule.”

Inflation is not over yet, the next step for the Reserve Bank of Australia may be to raise interest rates

It seems that Australia’s inflation problem is more stubborn than expected. The previously announced October Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.8% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, indicating that the upward momentum of prices shows no signs of fading. The Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision on December 9th. Although it has cut rates three times this year, amid increasing inflationary pressures, it is expected to keep rates steady at 3.6%.

The real turning point is here — the market is beginning to heavily bet on a rate hike in 2026. After the release of household spending data, the market’s probability of a rate increase in May 2026 jumped from 18% on Wednesday to 55%. This is not a minor adjustment but a clear shift in market sentiment.

Future outlook for the Australian dollar, three major banks have different plans

Regarding the future trend of the AUD/USD, several major banks have similar predictions, but their emphasis varies.

National Australia Bank (NAB) is the most optimistic, forecasting the AUD/USD will reach 0.67 by December 2025 and further rise to 0.71 by June 2026. Westpac’s forecast path is more detailed, expecting to hit 0.69 in March 2026, rise to 0.70 in September, and reach 0.71 by the end of the year. ING’s forecast is relatively conservative, believing the AUD will rise to 0.68 in the second quarter of 2026 and reach 0.69 by year-end.

Although the specific numbers differ, all three banks point in the same direction — the AUD continues to trend upward. Behind this high consensus is a shared optimistic outlook on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate hike expectations.

Market sentiment shifts, the AUD still has room to rise

Domestic demand remains strong, inflation remains high, and the Reserve Bank of Australia is being pushed toward rate hikes. The unexpectedly strong household spending and the high level of CPI have thoroughly changed market expectations for Australian monetary policy. The rebound of the AUD is not a fleeting phenomenon but a true reflection of this shift. If expectations of a rate hike in 2026 continue to heat up, there is still considerable room for the AUD to appreciate against the USD.