AxelAdlerJr

Institutions aren't buying. They're selling. −11,042 BTC left ETFs in 7 days. Exchanges are flooded with supply.
Full breakdown in ☕️ Morning Brief 109 👇

In November 2022, 78% of all Bitcoin was held by Long-Term Holders. That was the bottom.
Today that number is 49%. What does this mean for the current market?
SQL of the Week #015: HODL Waves - age structure of supply, SQL for BigQuery and interpretation of the current state.
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Today could be a strong green trading day if progress in the U.S.-Iran talks continues.

VIX and MOVE are rising. This is a toxic combination for the markets, increasing the probability of whipsaws and sharp moves.

New Weekly Engine update + Trader’s Evidence is out.
Deleveraging is over - or just a pause before the next wave?
Full report below👇

Bitcoin Basis (%) - 7D SMA has returned to the neutral zone as the spot-futures premium collapsed. This indicates that demand for long exposure via derivatives has weakened, and the market is no longer pricing in an aggressive risk-on scenario. Typically, this signals a decrease in risk appetite, deleveraging, and a shift into wait-and-see mode.
Bulls need more spot demand, as derivatives are currently not pushing the market higher.

Satoshi Nakamoto is a single individual, not a group.
At the time of Bitcoin's creation, he was likely in his 30s or older. His references to Hashcash, b-money, and DigiCash were not random citations, they represented his actual working context. He possessed deep expertise in applied cryptography and financial systems.
He was a person for whom solving the problem was more important than owning the solution. It is highly probable that he still holds the keys, which makes him a potential target for criminal activity.
The world does not need to know his identity, as a Patoshi coin dump could tri

Realized Price Under Threat: Market Approaching Critical Support Zone
The market is falling, but long-term support remains intact: LTH Cost Basis is rising (~$38.2K), Realized Price is declining (~$55.0K), and at current rates they will form a critical corridor of $43K-$51K within a quarter.
☕️ Adler AM 👇

Market Back to Risk-Off: Stablecoins Confirm BTC Weakness
new ☕️Adler AM 👇

I’m checking the LTF futures charts every other day, hoping for some signs of improvement, but I don't see any yet.

Who actually holds the supply? This lesson shows how STH/LTH Supply and HODL Waves reveal whether a rally has strong support - or is just weak hands chasing price.

True Diamond Hands Spectrum💎🙌

These three lessons will give you a basic understanding of one of the key pillars of on-chain analysis - unrealized profit/loss and the psychology of market cycles.
Save them to your bookmarks and set aside 2-3 hours over the weekend to calmly go through them and understand how it works.

Overall morning sentiment is neutral, but rising VIX and MOVE are strengthening a defensive bias and increasing the likelihood of a risk-off shift.

Gold recovered above $5,055 per ounce on Wednesday, approaching a nearly two-week high. The move followed weak U.S. data, as December retail sales fell short of expectations, signaling a slowdown in consumer spending and heightening concerns about moderating economic growth.