In the past few days, I've seen people using the supply curve of stablecoins to force the narrative that "ETF inflows = imminent surge," which is quite easy to mistake correlation for causation. An increase in stablecoins might just mean everyone is repositioning, hedging, or waiting for opportunities, not necessarily net buying; OTC funds for ETFs also have their rhythm, and if redemptions slow down, market sentiment can change.

Additionally, recent tax hikes and fluctuating compliance standards in certain regions have caused waves of deposit and withdrawal expectations. Many people are actually first asking, "Can I transfer in/out?" before considering "Should I buy." I'm now more focused on the process: the risks of bridges, whether on-chain settlements are smooth, whether governance votes have real impact... Don’t be led astray by a single chart; I prefer to stay conservative for now.