I just read a study that really deserves discussion. It turns out that quantum computers could become a much larger and closer threat to our crypto wallets than we previously thought.

Caltech and the quantum startup Oratomic published a paper that overturns previous assumptions about how soon quantum systems will be able to break the cryptography protecting Bitcoin and Ethereum. Their calculations show: to crack the ECC-256 (encryption standard, on which the security of both blockchains is based, only about 10,000 physical qubits are needed. Experts previously talked about hundreds of thousands. That’s a huge difference.

What’s even more alarming: according to their estimates, a quantum system with approximately 26,000 neutral-atom-based qubits could break this standard in about 10 days. This means potential access to private keys and control over funds. For comparison, RSA-2048 )which financial institutions use( would require about 102,000 qubits and three months.

Interestingly, elliptic curve cryptography turns out to be more vulnerable precisely because it achieves comparable security with smaller keys. This makes it easier for a quantum machine to break.

Here’s what’s truly striking: looking at the history of estimates, over the past two decades, the required number of qubits has decreased by five orders of magnitude. In 2012, they talked about 1 billion qubits, and now — about 10,000. The trend is clear.

It’s worth noting that the study has a conflict of interest: all nine authors are shareholders of Oratomic, six of them work at the company. This makes the results both a scientific conclusion and a roadmap for their hardware approach. But that doesn’t make the problem any less real.

The key question now isn’t whether quantum systems can break cryptography — it’s almost a fact already. The question is whether the crypto industry will have time to migrate to quantum-resistant platforms before the cost of such attacks drops even further and becomes accessible. About 6.9 million BTC are at stake, linked to early wallets and reused addresses.

By the way, an interesting detail: Bitmine Immersion Technologies has transformed over the past six months from a mining firm into an Ethereum holder, doubling its positions and attracting over $10 billion. They currently hold 4.87 million ETH at an average value of about $2,206 per token — the largest corporate holder.

In short: the quantum threat is approaching faster than we expected. The industry has limited time to switch to secure systems.