Passenger Association: February New Energy Passenger Vehicle Market Retail Sales of 464,000 Units, Down 32% Year-over-Year

Review of the Nationwide Passenger Car Market in February

Retail: From February 1-28, retail sales of passenger cars nationwide totaled 1.034 million units, down 25.4% year-on-year and down 33.1% month-on-month. Since the beginning of this year, cumulative retail sales reached 2.578 million units, a decrease of 18.9% compared to the same period last year. Due to complex market factors, recent years have shown a clear “low at the start, high at the end” pattern in annual sales. Disruptions such as the Spring Festival cause significant fluctuations in February retail sales year-on-year, for example: 2019 -19%, 2020 -79%, 2021 +373%, 2022 +5%, 2023 +10%, 2024 -21%, 2025 +26%. Therefore, the -25.4% decline in 2026 is within the typical range of sharp fluctuations for February.

Since the implementation of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy in September 2014, which officially ended at the end of December 2025, the new energy vehicle market in 2026 is in a period of tax subsidy adjustment and recovery. Some consumers preemptively enjoyed policy benefits in 2025, leading to a certain “front-loading” effect in January-February 2026, which is a short-term fluctuation and not indicative of long-term market trends. This year, with the Spring Festival occurring later, the car market shows divergent growth, with weaker performance in new energy vehicles, still requiring more policy support.

Features of the passenger car market in February 2026: First, the average daily export volume of passenger cars by manufacturers hit a record high, indicating China’s automotive industry’s growing competitiveness globally and sustained overseas demand; second, retail sales declined sharply after the expiration of the purchase tax exemption, but structural changes are evident—higher proportion of high-end new energy vehicles and lower entry-level consumption, aiding industry transformation toward higher quality; third, new car launches in 2026 remained stable, combined with efforts to curb disorderly price cuts, with promotional sales of new energy vehicles maintaining around 10.4% for six consecutive months, avoiding destructive price competition and helping maintain market order; fourth, the historical pattern of fuel vehicles outperforming new energy vehicles before the Spring Festival continued, with fuel vehicle retail down 19% YoY, pure electric retail down 35%, extended-range down 16%, plug-in hybrid down 31%. As consumers gradually adapt to normalizing tax policies for new energy vehicles, the market is expected to return to positive growth; fifth, February remains a period dominated by fuel vehicle consumption before the Spring Festival, with new energy vehicle retail penetration at 44.9% domestically and 48.5% in exports, showing good performance; sixth, in February 2026, exports of domestically produced fuel vehicles reached 247,000 units (+21% YoY), and new energy vehicle exports reached 231,000 units (+110%), with new energy accounting for 48.4% of autonomous exports, especially high growth in Europe and Southeast Asia, indicating China’s new energy vehicle brands are expanding their influence internationally and laying a solid foundation for future export growth.

自主品牌在2月零售达63万辆，同比下降30%，环比下降29%。当月自主品牌国内零售份额为61.2%，同比下降4.3个百分点。自主品牌在新能源和出口市场获得明显增长。部分传统头部车企表现优异，如吉利、长安、长城等品牌份额明显提升。

Mainstream joint venture brands sold 270,000 units in February, down 19% year-on-year and 43% month-on-month. In February, German brands held an 18.2% retail share, up 1.2 percentage points YoY; Japanese brands 12.1%, up 1.5 percentage points; American brands 6.8%, up 1.8 percentage points; Korean brands saw slight increases.

Luxury car retail: 130,000 units in February, down 12% YoY and 27% MoM. The luxury brand retail share was 12.7%, up 2 percentage points YoY, indicating market stabilization.

Exports: According to data from the Passenger Car Association, in February, passenger car exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) totaled 555,000 units, up 56.0% YoY and down 4.4% MoM. New energy vehicles accounted for 48.5% of total exports, an increase of 15 percentage points from the same period last year. Autonomous brand exports reached 478,000 units, up 52% YoY; joint venture and luxury brand exports totaled 77,000 units, up 85% YoY.

Production: In February, passenger vehicle production was 1.373 million units, down 21.0% YoY and 31.5% MoM. Luxury brand production declined 9% YoY and 40% MoM; joint venture brands decreased 22% YoY and 32% MoM; autonomous brands fell 22% YoY and 30% MoM.

Wholesale: Nationwide, passenger car wholesale volume in February was 1.518 million units, down 14.3% YoY and 23.0% MoM. Due to retail adjustments, the wholesale growth rate was 11.1 percentage points higher than retail. Autonomous brand wholesale: 1.074 million units, down 14% YoY and 19% MoM. Mainstream joint venture brands: 283,000 units, down 20% YoY and 32% MoM. Luxury brands: 161,000 units, down 2% YoY and 30% MoM.

The overall wholesale pattern of leading passenger car manufacturers continued to evolve, with Geely, SAIC Passenger Vehicle, Tesla, GAC Toyota, Dongfeng, Leap Motor, Li Auto, GAC Trumpchi, NIO, BAIC, Beijing Hyundai, and others achieving YoY growth. Three manufacturers with wholesale volumes over 100,000 units in February (down from four in January and three in the same period last year), accounting for 36% of the total market share (compared to 40% last month and 39% last year). Manufacturers with wholesale volumes between 50,000 and 100,000 units accounted for 29% (up from 24% last month and 22% last year), and those with 10,000 to 50,000 units made up 29% (down from 31% last month and 35% last year).

Inventory: Due to relatively stable manufacturing in February, wholesale volume exceeded production by 150,000 units, and retail volume exceeded wholesale by 70,000 units. Overall, passenger car channel inventory decreased by 220,000 units in February (compared to a 40,000-unit decrease last year). February was a month of production reduction and destocking for automakers, whereas last year’s inventory decline was driven by retail.

New Energy Vehicles: February production of new energy passenger cars reached 645,000 units, down 21.3% YoY. Cumulative production for January-February was 1.585 million units, down 10.1% YoY.

February wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars totaled 723,000 units, down 13.1% YoY; January-February cumulative wholesale was 1.589 million units, down 7.9%. Conventional fuel passenger car wholesale sales in February reached 800,000 units, down 15% YoY.

Market retail of new energy passenger cars in February was 464,000 units, down 32.0% YoY; January-February retail was 1.060 million units, down 25.7%. Retail of conventional fuel vehicles in February was 570,000 units, down 19% YoY.

Exports of new energy passenger cars in February totaled 269,000 units, up 124.7% YoY and down 7.0% MoM; January-February exports reached 559,000 units, up 114.7% YoY. Conventional fuel vehicle exports in February were 290,000 units, up 21% YoY.

1. Wholesale: In February, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in wholesale was 47.6%, an increase of 1 percentage point compared to February 2025. Autonomous brand new energy vehicles had a penetration rate of 58.9%; luxury brand new energy vehicles 48.2%; mainstream joint venture brand new energy vehicles 4.6%.

February pure electric wholesale volume was 421,000 units, down 12.2% YoY and 16.9% MoM; plug-in hybrid (narrow sense) 246,000 units, down 12.9% YoY and 11.5% MoM; extended-range models 55,000 units, down 20.1% YoY and 32.1% MoM. The structure of new energy wholesale in February was: pure electric 58.3% (up 0.6 percentage points YoY, down 0.2 percentage points MoM), plug-in hybrid 34.1% (up 0.1 points YoY, up 2.0 points MoM), extended-range 7.6% (down 0.7 points YoY, down 1.8 points MoM).

Level B electric vehicles wholesale: 147,000 units, up 16% YoY but down 26% MoM, accounting for 35% of pure electric market share, an increase of 8.5 percentage points from last year. The A00+A0 class economy electric vehicles face significant pressure, with A00 models wholesale volume at 47,000 units, down 61% YoY but up 8% MoM, representing 11% of pure electric vehicles, down 14 percentage points from last year; A0 models 122,000 units, 29% share, up 3.9 points YoY; A-class electric vehicles 84,000 units, 20% share, down 0.9 points YoY. The growth of economy models is sustainable; widespread adoption of affordable electric vehicles is essential to truly boost market volume.

In February, eight passenger car models with wholesale volumes over 20,000 units (down from 17 last month): Model Y (41,404), Geely Xingyuan (37,859), BYD Song (34,071), Chery Explorer 06 (24,564), Geely Boyue (23,303), Chery Tiggo 7 (20,416), Xiaomi YU7 (20,196), Seagull (20,190).

2. Retail: In February, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic passenger car market was 44.9%, down 4 percentage points YoY. Among domestic brands, the retail penetration of new energy vehicles was 64.5%; luxury brands 32.6%; mainstream joint venture brands 4.5%. In terms of monthly retail share, autonomous brand new energy vehicles accounted for 60.3%, down 12 points YoY; mainstream joint venture brands 3.1%, up 1.2 points; new forces (such as NIO, XPeng, Leap Motor) 27.3%, with their market share increasing by 7 points YoY; Tesla’s share was 8.2%, up 4.3 points YoY.

3. Export: In February, exports of new energy passenger cars totaled 269,000 units, up 124.7% YoY and down 7.0% MoM, accounting for 48.5% of passenger car exports, an increase of 14.8 percentage points from last year. Pure electric vehicles made up 58% of new energy exports (59% last year), with A00+A0 class pure electric vehicles accounting for 55% of pure electric exports (56% last year). As China’s new energy vehicle scale advantages become evident and market demand expands, domestic brands are increasingly going global, with recognition abroad continuously rising. Plug-in hybrids accounted for 38% of new energy exports (38% last year). Despite recent external disruptions, autonomous plug-in hybrid exports to developing countries are growing rapidly, with promising prospects. Notable companies in February’s new energy exports include BYD (98,706 units), Geely (40,852), Chery (28,304), Tesla China (20,393), SAIC Passenger Vehicle (14,138), Leap Motor (9,769), SAIC-GM-Wuling (9,568), Dongfeng (8,888), Changan (6,031), Volvo Asia-Pacific (4,918), Zhi Ma Da (3,978), Xpeng (3,648), Polestar (3,544), Changan Mazda (1,742), Great Wall (1,626), Dongfeng Honda (1,560), BAIC (1,455), GAC Aion (1,295), Seres (Hubei) (1,062). Other automakers also have significant export volumes.

Regarding overseas deployment, some autonomous brands have high CKD export ratios: Great Wall CKD 52%, SAIC-GM-Wuling 35%, SAIC Passenger Vehicle 3%. Overseas production of fuel vehicles is estimated at over 500,000 units, and with new energy CKD exports, China’s total overseas vehicle sales are expected to surpass 9 million units.

4. Automakers: In February, the overall performance of new energy vehicle companies was strong, with BYD’s dual drive of pure electric and plug-in hybrid consolidating its leading position among domestic brands; companies like BYD, Geely, and Chery continued to perform well in narrow-sense plug-in hybrids. As domestic automakers adopt multi-pronged strategies in the new energy sector, their market base continues to expand. The number of manufacturers with monthly wholesale volumes over 10,000 units reached 16 (up 1 from last year, steady from last month), accounting for 90.9% of total new energy passenger vehicle sales (compared to 90.5% last month and 91.6% last year). Leading companies include BYD (187,782), Geely (117,488), Tesla China (58,599), Changan (40,886), Chery (36,091), Leap Motor (28,067), SAIC-GM-Wuling (26,874), Li Auto (26,421), SAIC Passenger Vehicle (21,962), Dongfeng (21,817), NIO (20,797), Xiaomi (20,414), XPeng (15,256), Great Wall (12,741), GAC Aion (11,742), Seres (10,025).

Domestic brands with retail sales exceeding 20,000 units in February include BYD (88,697), Geely (76,636), Tesla China (38,206), Changan (28,220), Hongmeng Zhixing (28,212), Li Auto (26,421), NIO (20,750), Xiaomi (20,414).

5. New Forces: In February, new force brands accounted for 27.3% of retail market share, an increase of 7 percentage points YoY. Pure electric models made up 73.4% of new force sales, a significant increase from 64.9%. The share of 100,000-150,000 yuan price segment models increased sharply. Independent new energy brands from traditional domestic automakers, as “second-generation” creators, performed strongly, with a market share of 17.1%, up 3 points YoY. Brands like Shenlan, Zeekr, Jidu, and Lantu performed excellently among large autonomous groups.

6. Conventional Hybrid: In February, wholesale volume of conventional hybrid passenger cars was 52,000 units, down 3.4% YoY and 29% MoM. Key companies include GAC Toyota (24,060), FAW Toyota (21,657), Changan Ford (2,475), Dongfeng Honda (1,603), GAC Honda (1,351), Dongfeng (1,152). The hybrid market remains relatively strong, with autonomous hybrid models performing well overseas.

2026 Outlook for the Nationwide Passenger Car Market

In March 2026, there are 22 working days, one more than March 2025. With rapid normalization across industries after the Spring Festival, month-on-month production and sales are expected to grow rapidly.

The post-holiday period is critical for new product launches, with many manufacturers releasing numerous new models. Under the influence of national policies to stimulate consumption, several provinces and cities have introduced supportive measures, and the full resumption of offline events like auto shows will accelerate crowd gathering. Recently, raw material prices such as lithium and copper remain high, and with ongoing “anti-involution” efforts, few new energy models with unexpectedly high cost-performance are expected to be launched, limiting explosive growth potential in the market.

Although recent Middle East crises have caused some transportation disruptions, Chinese automakers have shifted from “chartering ships” to “controlling shipping,” rapidly expanding their own fleets, with autonomous and efficient logistics. Compared to other international automakers, our export logistics security is stronger. If the crisis duration is short, export transportation will be minimally affected.

With the full implementation of the national old-for-new policy, the market’s potential for phase-out, replacement, and upgrade consumption will gradually be released, supporting a steady strengthening of the car market in March. In 2026, policy subsidies and structural optimization in the automotive industry will be key to driving overall market prosperity and accelerating high-end development of new energy vehicles. Although the total subsidy funds for old-for-new in 2026 will decrease by 500 billion yuan to 2.5 trillion yuan compared to 2025, targeted financial support such as loan interest subsidies and financing guarantees will reduce residents’ vehicle purchase and automaker financing costs, effectively stimulating endogenous consumption and expanding domestic demand.

Automotive industry as a new infrastructure for consumption: Under the wave of industrial upgrading and technological transformation, “cars” have transcended traditional transportation tools, becoming a core pillar of high-quality manufacturing development, consumption stimulation, smart ecological connectivity, and energy revolution. Its core value lies in manufacturing support, intelligent consumption empowerment, and energy transition linkage, making the automotive industry a vital growth engine for the new era’s economy. Over the next 5-10 years, the entire automotive supply chain market size will surpass 10 trillion yuan, with used cars, aftermarket services, and new energy supporting services as the main growth drivers. Data shows that by 2025, China’s automotive industry will produce over 11 trillion yuan, nearly 10% of the national manufacturing output, directly driving upstream and downstream industries worth over 20 trillion yuan, providing over 8 million direct jobs and over 30 million indirect jobs, ranking first in manufacturing scale and impact.

With the development of intelligent electric vehicles, private cars are increasingly becoming the “third space” of family life, replacing real estate as a new driver of household consumption, and forming the foundation for manufacturing’s final consumption. Similar to how buying a house leads to home appliances and decoration, owning a private car creates a mobile “home,” fostering a new mobility and consumption ecosystem. Boosting car sales is equivalent to building the new infrastructure of the “third space,” which is of great significance.

2026 January: China accounts for 33% of the global automotive market

In 2025, global vehicle sales reached 96.89 million units, up 6% YoY. In January 2026, global sales totaled 7.18 million units, up 1% YoY. As the Chinese and US markets slow, global growth in January 2026 also decelerates. China’s automotive market performed well overall, with its global share continuously rising since 2020, reaching 33.8% in 2023, 34.2% in 2024, and 35.4% in 2025. In January 2026, China’s share was 32.7%, stable.

Overseas environment for Chinese brands’ expansion is favorable: in January 2026, India’s market grew 11%, Vietnam 77%, Russia surged 53% on a low base, Thailand 43%, Malaysia 27%, and some South American markets also performed well.

Overall, the “East rising, West declining” pattern continues, with Chinese independent brands steadily increasing their global share. Major international automakers’ shares have declined significantly, while Chinese automakers perform strongly. Among the top 10 global automakers in 2026, three Chinese companies—Geely (6th), Chery (8th), and BYD (10th)—show notable growth. Apart from the temporarily strong US market and factors like Suzuki’s good performance in India, other international brands’ shares have generally declined.

January 2026: Autonomous overseas new energy vehicle share reaches 28% of the global new energy vehicle market

In 2025, global vehicle sales reached 96.89 million units, with new energy vehicles at 22.89 million. In January 2026, global sales were 7.18 million units, with new energy vehicles at 1.42 million. The share of new energy vehicles in January 2026 was 19.7%, with pure electric vehicles at 13.3% and plug-in hybrids at 6.4%, demonstrating excellent performance.

In 2025, US new energy vehicle sales totaled 1.72 million units, with a growth rate of -2%, reflecting sluggish recent growth. Due to high tariffs and the cancellation of subsidies, US new energy vehicle sales in January 2026 dropped 34% YoY to 82,000 units. European new energy passenger vehicle sales in 2025 reached 3.86 million, a 33% increase over 2024’s same period, with an increase of 960,000 units. Preliminary estimates suggest that in January 2026, European new energy passenger vehicle sales were 269,000 units, up 13% YoY.

China’s new energy passenger vehicle market share in January 2026 reached 62.8%. In 2025, China’s overseas sales of autonomous new energy vehicles accounted for 15.8% of the global market, with significant growth. In January 2026, the overseas market share of autonomous new energy vehicles increased to 28.3%, up 7.5 percentage points from December, driven by strong export performance and the decline in US demand due to subsidy cancellations.