【Oil Price Analysis】IEA Releases Oil Reserves, Oil Prices Rise Nearly 9%. Analysis: "A Drop in the Bucket," Expecting Oil Prices to Continue Fluctuating Significantly in the Short Term

SocialAnxietyStaker · 2026-03-12T05:10:21+00:00

The Iran situation impacts the market. The International Energy Agency released 400 million barrels of oil reserves but failed to lower oil prices, with Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel. The market expects short-term oil price fluctuations, with long-term stability possibly as the conflict eases. High oil prices are driving U.S. inflation up, increasing the risk of rate hikes. The U.S. stock market is weak, and investors are advised to stay cautious. Trump claims the war is nearing an end, but Iran's military firing on commercial ships has made the situation uncertain.

SocialAnxietyStaker

2026-03-12 05:10:21

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Iranian situation continues to trouble the market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) historically released 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves, but global oil prices still rose again. During Asian trading hours, Brent crude surged past $100 per barrel, and NYMEX crude reached $95. US stock futures declined on Thursday, with Dow futures down over 500 points.

Zhang Ming Capital Director Zeng Qibang said in a video program that the market believes the IEA’s emergency reserve release can only provide short-term relief to oil supply, calling it “a drop in the bucket—insufficient and likely only temporary.” He added, “Everyone thinks the conflict might not end so quickly,” but he does not recommend betting on oil price fluctuations at this time.

He pointed out that recent oil price volatility has been driven by Middle East conflict news, and short-term prices are expected to fluctuate wildly and be difficult to predict. In the long term, prices may gradually stabilize as the conflict eases. Currently, oil prices near $100 per barrel are already high, and further significant increases are limited. Although Iran warned that prices could rise to $200, he believes the chance of that happening is low, and high oil prices will also stimulate increased production.

Analysis Indicates No Clear Entry Signal for US Stocks

Zeng Qibang said that high oil prices are increasing inflationary pressures in the US, narrowing the Federal Reserve’s room to cut interest rates and even raising the risk of rate hikes. The market will closely watch how the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the impact of the oil price surge. He noted that recently, the US dollar index has been strong, and market sentiment is cautious. Inflation and rate hike expectations are putting pressure on US stocks, which are trending weakly. There are no clear signals to enter the market now. He recommends a wait-and-see approach, but the growth potential of the AI industry remains attractive. Investors should monitor individual company performance and build a watchlist, ready to deploy once the market clarifies.

US President Trump claimed yesterday that the war would end quickly and that Iran has “nothing left to fight.” However, the Middle East situation remains uncertain. On Wednesday, Iranian forces fired on commercial ships and warned the world to prepare for oil prices reaching $200 per barrel. Additionally, an Iranian official hinted at blocking another key oil transit route through the Red Sea.

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