Hormuz Traffic Tracking Day 10: Only 3 oil tankers passed, LNG ships have been zero for ten consecutive days

The Strait of Hormuz blockade enters its tenth day, with the number of transit ships still far below normal levels, and energy markets remain under pressure. Latest tracking data from Morgan Stanley shows no signs of substantial easing of the situation.

According to Morgan Stanley’s daily tracking report released on March 10, only about 3 crude and refined oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz that day, with zero LNG and LPG ships transiting, compared to a normal level of about 35 vessels. Meanwhile, on Monday evening, Trump announced the possibility of lifting sanctions on “some countries,” adding new variables to the situation’s development.

Disruptions in the strait have begun to trigger regional supply response measures. Saudi Aramco stated that east-west pipeline flows will reach maximum capacity “within a few days,” and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s refinery in Ruwais, with a processing capacity of 817,000 barrels per day, reportedly began shutdown procedures after a drone attack.

On the demand side, India announced cuts to natural gas supplies to non-priority sectors and urged refineries to prioritize LPG supply; Pakistan ordered the closure of government offices and schools to conserve energy.

Oil tanker transits remain extremely low

Morgan Stanley data shows that actual oil tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz on that day were less than one-tenth of normal levels. Notably, some ships have turned off AIS automatic identification system signals, which may underestimate actual transit numbers, but Morgan Stanley analysts believe any substantial recovery in flow should be reflected in tracking data.

From loading data, since the blockade, new crude oil loading volumes destined for major importing countries have significantly shrunk. However, the daily loading volume at Yanbu has rebounded to about 2 to 2.5 million barrels, and exports from Fujeira are also beginning to show a clear increase, indicating that rerouted pipelines and alternative export channels are gradually taking effect.

Freight rates slightly decline but remain near historical highs

After remaining high for some time, oil tanker freight rates have edged down marginally, but overall levels are still close to historic peaks. For example, the TD22 route (U.S. to China) saw rates decrease from $92 per ton on Monday to $89 per ton on the same day.

Morgan Stanley notes that the high volatility in freight rates reflects market uncertainty about when the Strait will fully reopen. For refiners and traders relying on Persian Gulf oil supplies, short-term procurement costs are unlikely to ease significantly.

Natural gas prices plummet, refined product crack spreads retreat from high levels

Energy prices are diverging. The European benchmark TTF front-month contract fell sharply by 17% to €47 per MWh, with the TTF forward curve shifting downward overall, indicating market expectations for medium-term gas prices have been revised.

Meanwhile, crack spreads for refined products narrowed during the day’s trading but remain at relatively high levels. The crack spreads for Northwest European diesel and jet fuel have fallen from previous peaks but have not yet shown a trend reversal, suggesting refining margins remain quite healthy.

Geopolitical signals and infrastructure risks coexist

Trump announced on Monday that he is considering lifting sanctions on “some countries,” widely interpreted as a potential diplomatic breakthrough regarding the current situation, but details and scope remain unclear, and the actual market impact is yet to be seen.

On the infrastructure front, ADNOC’s large refinery in Ruwais, with a processing capacity of 817,000 barrels per day, reportedly initiated shutdown procedures after a drone attack, further reducing refining capacity west of the strait.

Saudi Aramco stated that east-west pipelines will reach maximum capacity “within a few days,” potentially helping to partially offset the export shortfall caused by the blockage.

Morgan Stanley indicates that, given the ongoing turbulence, it plans to extend its daily tracking reports for another week to continuously monitor ship transits, freight trends, and key event developments.

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