Unforeseen Economic Situation

Looking back, just to look ahead. Reviewing data from the past few years, it seems that in macroeconomic operations, some variables often deviate from market expectations or even form certain trends that are hard to shake off. It’s somewhat similar to “dark matter” in physics—unseen but detectable. If we can capture a few clues, we might be able to predict the future more accurately.

Unforeseen Exports

Over the past three years, the market has significantly and consistently underestimated exports. Traditional experience struggles to explain why global trade also diverges from global economic growth. The overall story may give way to structural breakpoints. “Dark matter” could include economic high-growth countries with incomplete statistical data, restructuring of industrial chains after public health events, and emerging technology exports.

Figure 1. Underestimated Exports: What is “Dark Matter”?

Unforeseen Investments

In the past three years, the market has overestimated investments overall, possibly underestimating the extent of real estate adjustments and the financial resource reallocation related to debt reduction. Additionally, investment shows a pattern of being significantly underestimated at the start of the year and then overestimated later, indicating that the market relies more on physical workload to forecast, and it’s still difficult to capture the “financial expenditure method” (rather than the traditional “progression method”), which depends more on actual fund disbursement.

We recommend accessing the Caixin database, where you can check macroeconomic data, stocks, bonds, company profiles, and financial data anytime.