Zong Xiaoli: The non-farm payrolls report officially releases tonight. How will the USD and gold react?

Recently, more and more people are expressing their surprise that the market has become so confusing—despite the intense situation in the Middle East, with frequent clashes between Dazhou, YSL, and Lang Lang, making a lively scene. This is a typical example of geopolitical factors stimulating the market, clearly benefiting gold. However, the market performance has been disappointing, not only failing to show the expected rise but actually gradually declining, leaving many puzzled…

The main reason is that the market focus has shifted. On one hand, the Middle East situation has become tense, and the market has gradually adapted to this rhythm. On the other hand, gold prices are too high, with a large bubble and a need for a correction. Additionally, the market’s capital gap is widening, so a decline in gold prices has become a natural outcome. This is completely different from the previous geopolitical logic, so the trend has also changed. Gold prices are inching down, and the impact of geopolitical factors is minimal. The more intense the geopolitical situation, the more gold prices retreat…

Regarding this situation, will there be any change after tonight’s non-farm payroll data is released? I advise caution. If gold cannot even break through 5140, how can there be any talk of an upward trend?

As for the US dollar index, from a technical perspective, there is significant resistance because it has formed upper shadows for three consecutive days. Isn’t this a clear sign of a triple top? Interestingly, the dollar is not showing any downward intention; instead, it is actively pushing upward. Many are puzzled—does this mean the dollar index will continue to rise? Indeed, the dollar index aims to go higher because only rising can protect the fundamentals and prevent liquidity from flowing out. Especially after tonight’s non-farm payroll data, the impact on the dollar index will be substantial. Everyone should be cautious of a sudden surge after fluctuations. Therefore, buying on dips is the right strategy—just for your reference!