Is NOV (NOV) Pricing Fairly After Recent Share Price Strength?

Simply Wall St

Tue, February 24, 2026 at 10:08 AM GMT+9 5 min read

In this article:

NOV

-0.54%

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If you are wondering whether NOV's current share price reflects its true worth, this article will walk through what the numbers say about value and what that could mean for your research.

At a last close of US$20.28, NOV's share price sits alongside returns of 5.6% over 7 days, 10.3% over 30 days, 23.6% year to date, 40.7% over 1 year, negative 2.1% over 3 years, and 40.6% over 5 years. Taken together, these figures give a mixed picture of recent momentum and longer term performance.

Recent coverage of NOV has focused on its position in the energy equipment and services space and how investor sentiment can shift as sector conditions change. These developments help frame the recent share price moves and set up the question of whether the market is pricing NOV efficiently.

Our valuation framework gives NOV a score of 2 out of 6 

NOV scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: NOV Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes estimates of the cash a company could generate in the future and discounts those amounts back to what they might be worth today.

For NOV, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach built on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is around $914.2 million. Analyst inputs and extrapolated figures point to projected Free Cash Flow of about $609.5 million in 2030, with interim projections between 2026 and 2035 ranging from roughly $449.5 million to $576.8 million, all in dollars.

When these projected cash flows are discounted back, the DCF output suggests an estimated intrinsic value of about $29.14 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $20.28, this indicates NOV is trading at a 30.4% discount to that DCF estimate.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests NOV is undervalued by 30.4%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 56 more high quality undervalued stocks.

NOV Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for NOV.

Approach 2: NOV Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand because it links what you pay per share to the earnings that each share generates. It gives you a quick sense of how many years of current earnings the market is effectively paying for.

What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on how investors view growth potential and risk. Higher expected earnings growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually pulls that multiple down.

Story continues  

NOV currently trades on a P/E of 50.41x. That sits above the Energy Services industry average of about 26.52x and the peer average of roughly 22.79x, suggesting the market is applying a higher multiple than these simple benchmarks.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of what NOV’s P/E might be given its earnings profile, industry, profit margins, market value and key risks. For NOV, this Fair Ratio is 21.54x. Because it adjusts for company specific traits rather than just comparing with broad peer or industry averages, it can offer a more tailored view of value.

Comparing NOV’s current P/E of 50.41x with the Fair Ratio of 21.54x points to the shares trading on a richer multiple than that tailored benchmark.

Result: OVERVALUED

NYSE:NOV P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your NOV Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. On Simply Wall St’s Community page you can use Narratives, where you set out your story for NOV, link that story to your own assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins, and then see the Fair Value that drops out so you can compare it with the current share price. You can then update it automatically as fresh news or earnings arrive, whether you lean closer to a cautious view with Fair Value around US$16.00 or a more optimistic view closer to US$23.00.

For NOV however, here are previews of two leading NOV narratives:

🐂 NOV Bull Case

Fair value in this bullish narrative: US$23.00

Implied discount to that fair value at the last close of US$20.28: around 12%

Revenue growth assumption used in this narrative: 3.44%

Backlog in offshore and energy equipment, together with years of underinvestment, is viewed as a setup for stronger orders and higher EBITDA margins.

Digital tools, automation and renewables exposure are expected to support recurring, higher margin revenue and a higher quality earnings mix.

Analysts behind this view model modest revenue and margin expansion, a future P/E of 14.62x and arrive at a fair value of US$23.00 using a 7.60% discount rate.

🐻 NOV Bear Case

Fair value in this bearish narrative: US$16.00

Implied premium to that fair value at the last close of US$20.28: around 27%

Revenue growth assumption used in this narrative: 1.35%

This view sees NOV as heavily exposed to traditional oil and gas, with energy transition and ESG pressures weighing on long term demand and pricing power.

Concerns center on slower growth, potential margin compression and higher capital costs as investors demand more for fossil fuel exposure.

Analysts behind this narrative assume modest revenue growth, a profit margin of 5.18%, a future P/E of 13.45x and reach a fair value of US$16.00 using a 7.61% discount rate.

These contrasting narratives provide a clear bull and bear range for NOV, so you can decide which set of assumptions is closer to how you see the business and the sector today.

Do you think there’s more to the story for NOV? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

NYSE:NOV 1-Year Stock Price Chart

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include NOV.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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