Qatar warns Gulf countries to halt production, US stock index futures plunge, oil prices surge, US oil up 4%, US bonds under pressure, gold and silver rise

The situation in Iran continues to escalate, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted, reigniting energy supply risks and inflation concerns. The market is awaiting tonight’s non-farm payroll report.

On March 6, the three major U.S. stock index futures all fell sharply, with Nasdaq futures down 0.42% intraday, and S&P 500 futures down 0.36%; the dollar index briefly surged, rising 0.2% during the day; WTI crude oil jumped over 2.5%, reaching $83.56 per barrel. Precious metals strengthened, with spot silver up 2.5% and gold rising in tandem.

Crude oil resumes its upward trend, but momentum slows. Recent data shows that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly at a standstill, with supply concerns reigniting, overshadowing the suppressive effects of U.S. intervention measures. During Asian trading hours, oil prices initially declined as the White House considered multiple measures to stabilize prices. Crude oil prices posted the largest weekly gain since 2022.

Senior strategist at XP Investimentos, Marco Orvieto, said:

“The key now is whether this conflict will last a few days, weeks, or longer. The basic assumption remains that the conflict won’t last too long, and the U.S. will win this war. But Iran’s refusal to back down keeps the situation tense.”

Core market movements are as follows:

Nasdaq futures down 0.42% intraday, S&P 500 futures down 0.36%. Earlier, Dow Jones futures rose 0.17%, S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.2%.

European stocks opened higher collectively, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.53%, Germany’s DAX up 0.60%, UK’s FTSE 100 up 0.34%, France’s CAC 40 up 0.43%, Italy’s FTSE MIB up 0.61%.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 1 basis point to 4.15%.

Brent crude oil increased 0.6% to $85.93 per barrel.

Spot gold rose 0.3% to $5,100.07 per ounce; spot silver up 2.5%.

Bitcoin fell 0.2% to $70,991.31, Ethereum down 0.1% to $2,078.26.

U.S. stock index futures experienced slight fluctuations, stabilizing after a week of intense volatility. Investors continue to adjust expectations regarding the duration and impact of the Iran conflict. Energy supply risks and inflation resurgence expectations dominate asset pricing logic. In the bond market, U.S. Treasuries declined, pushing the 10-year yield toward its largest weekly increase in nearly a year.

Market focus shifts to the upcoming February non-farm payroll report on Friday, seeking further clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path.

According to Wall Street Journal, Goldman Sachs estimates only 45,000 new jobs, below market consensus. Major drag factors include: approximately 31,000 jobs lost due to new strike activity, and about 5,000 jobs reduced in construction due to harsh winter weather; the firm also expects the continued restraint from federal hiring freezes.

Additionally, population control adjustments will be released simultaneously with tomorrow’s data. Goldman Sachs estimates that due to the slowdown in net immigration over the past year, the population base may be overestimated, leading to downward revisions of about 300,000 to 400,000 in labor force and employment figures; however, the impact on unemployment rate and labor participation rate is expected to be minimal, less than 2 basis points.

Oil prices rebound. Latest data shows that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly at a standstill, renewing supply disruption fears that overshadow the effects of U.S. intervention measures. During Asian trading hours, oil prices initially declined as the White House considered various measures to stabilize prices.

The plan for direct involvement of the Treasury Department in crude futures trading has been temporarily shelved, with potential stabilization measures including releasing strategic petroleum reserves and temporary exemptions from fuel blending requirements.

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