Huatai Futures: The probability of Iran being hit has significantly decreased; crude oil prices may return to being driven by fundamentals

K-LinePoet · 2026-03-06T07:05:03+00:00

Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Iran within a month. Currently, the military pressure is mainly a threat against Iran rather than direct warfare. An agreement between the US and Iran would remove the threat in the Strait of Hormuz and stabilize oil prices.

K-LinePoet

2026-03-06 07:05:03

Abstract generation in progress

Yesterday, Trump stated that he hopes to reach an agreement with Iran within a month. Based on current signs, Trump’s military buildup is more of a coercive threat to pressure Iran into concessions during negotiations, rather than an intention to start a direct war. Due to the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices and Iran can only choose one. Under the pressure of midterm elections, the cost for Trump to strike Iran is very high. Although the threat of military action still exists, the likelihood has significantly decreased compared to earlier this year. If later the US and Iran reach some sort of agreement instead of military action, the threat from the Strait of Hormuz will be completely lifted, and oil prices will then be driven primarily by fundamentals. (Huatai Futures)

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