It's not just crude oil transportation; currently, the Eurasian route only has a "50-mile air corridor."

Iran Drone Attack on Azerbaijan Is Pushing the Eurasian Air Corridor to Its Limits

According to Xinhua News Agency, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on March 5th saying that the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic was attacked by drones originating from Iran, resulting in two injuries.

This situation, combined with airspace restrictions in Iran, Iraq, and Qatar due to Middle Eastern conflicts, as well as long-standing bans on Western airlines flying over Russia, is causing multiple blockages along east-west routes between Europe and Asia. The Financial Times reported on Friday that after the southern Azerbaijani airspace was closed due to this attack, Eurasian routes have been forced into a narrow corridor only about 50 miles (approximately 80 kilometers) wide.

Industry experts warn that if northern Azerbaijani airspace also closes, some flights will have to reduce passenger capacity or detour thousands of miles around the southern Persian Gulf. In such cases, the longest routes—such as London to Australia—may exceed the endurance limits of some aircraft models.

Currently, thousands of flights operate daily between Europe and Asia, with passenger traffic unusually concentrated due to disruptions at hub airports like Dubai. Virgin Atlantic has indicated that flights to India and the Maldives will take longer but emphasized that aircraft always carry sufficient fuel. Qantas announced that the London-Perth route will add refueling stops in Singapore due to route adjustments and fuel pressure.

Attack Closes Azerbaijani Southern Airspace, Narrowing the Corridor Suddenly

According to the Financial Times, the drone attack was attributed by Baku to Iran, leading to the immediate closure of southern Azerbaijani airspace. Flight data from Flightradar24 shows that after the attack, overflight flights began flying close to Azerbaijan’s northern border with Russia, with available airspace only about 50 miles wide.

This corridor is currently the last relatively viable route for Western airlines maintaining Eurasian flights amid ongoing turmoil in the Middle East.

The closure of Iranian, Iraqi, and Qatari airspace has significantly narrowed routes, and the ban on flying over Russian airspace prevents Western airlines from detouring via the north as Chinese airlines do. The closure of southern Azerbaijani airspace further constricts an already tight choice.

If northern airspace also closes, Australian routes will be most affected

Currently, northern Azerbaijani airspace—including Baku Airport—remains open. However, aviation consultancy Andrew Charlton, who specializes in global air traffic, warned that if northern airspace also closes, flights will be forced to detour around the southern Persian Gulf, adding thousands of miles to their journeys.

“This bottleneck is especially severe for airlines that cannot fly over Russia, which will only increase geopolitical tensions,” Charlton said. He pointed out that some flights might need to limit passenger numbers proactively to ensure they can complete their flights. “It can be said that Qantas’s London to Sydney route will face difficulties, and perhaps the London to Perth route as well. Sometimes, these decisions are made by airlines, not governments.”

Qantas announced this week that the London-Perth route will add refueling stops in Singapore. Both British Airways and Qantas operate stopover flights between London and Australia, providing some flexibility under current circumstances.

Major European Airlines Affected, Australia-New Zealand Routes Suspended Widely

Due to the closure of Qatari airspace, several popular Australia-New Zealand routes via Doha have been suspended this week. Air France, KLM, and Lufthansa operate high-frequency flights between Europe and Asia, while Cathay Pacific maintains regular service between Hong Kong and London. Turkish Airlines, which handles a large volume of Asian routes, has its hub in Istanbul and can refuel locally, offering some route adjustment flexibility.

Meanwhile, disruptions at hub airports like Dubai have increased demand for direct flights and alternative transits between Europe and Asia, putting additional pressure on already strained routes. Industry experts note that the current situation is unusual, as geopolitical risks are spreading from maritime to aviation sectors, and the physical connectivity between Europe and Asia is facing unprecedented systemic stress.

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