Bellevue Gold Gets Analyst Boost: What Vanguard's 12,846K Share Position Reveals

On January 21, 2026, MOELIS AUSTRALIA SECURITIES made a notable move in their outlook on Bellevue Gold (OTCPK: BELGF), raising their recommendation from Hold to Buy. This upgrade comes as major institutional investors are closely monitoring the gold producer’s trajectory, with some significant positioning shifts occurring in recent quarters.

Rating Upgrade Signals Shifting Market Outlook

The analyst elevation reflects a changing assessment of Bellevue Gold’s prospects. However, the market may not be fully aligned with this positive view. As of December 21, 2025, the consensus price target among analysts stands at $1.11 per share, suggesting roughly 11.77% downside from the stock’s latest closing price of $1.26. The one-year forecasts display considerable variation, ranging from a cautious low of $0.67 to an optimistic high of $1.39, indicating divergent opinions about the company’s near-term direction.

Price Targets Tell a Mixed Story for Investors

Beyond the rating change, fundamental expectations are being revised downward. Bellevue Gold’s projected annual revenue has contracted to 266 million dollars, representing a 32.67% decline from previous estimates. The non-GAAP EPS projection has settled at 0.09, reflecting the challenging environment for gold producers. These metrics suggest that while sentiment is improving, the underlying business reality remains under pressure—a distinction investors shouldn’t overlook when weighing the upgraded recommendation.

Major Fund Movements Reflect Institutional Positioning

Fund positioning reveals a complex picture of institutional behavior during this period. Across Bellevue Gold’s shareholder base, 50 funds and institutions maintain reported positions in the stock. This represents a decrease of 7 owners, or 12.28%, during the last quarter. The average portfolio weight dedicated to BELGF stands at 0.15% of all holdings, though this metric has increased by 14.26%—suggesting that while fewer funds hold the stock, those who do are maintaining or slightly increasing their allocations.

Total institutional share ownership has declined materially, falling 25.10% over three months to 204,613K shares. This significant reduction highlights a broader rebalancing occurring among major market participants, even as the analyst upgrade was being announced.

Key Institutional Stakeholders and Their Recent Adjustments

Major passive and active funds continue to hold meaningful positions, each making distinct allocation choices. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) maintains the largest stake at 45,040K shares, representing 3.04% of the company. However, GDX decreased its holding from 46,089K shares in the prior period, a 2.33% reduction. The fund simultaneously cut its overall portfolio allocation to BELGF by 18.99% during the quarter.

VanEck’s junior miners counterpart, the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), holds 26,781K shares (1.81% ownership), slightly up from 26,282K shares previously—a modest 1.87% increase. Despite this small share gain, GDXJ still reduced its BELGF portfolio weighting by 14.07%, reflecting a broader rebalancing rather than confidence building.

The Franklin Gold & Precious Metals Fund (FKRCX) continues its 22,144K share holding with no changes in the recent quarter, suggesting a “hold steady” approach to this position.

Broader index exposure also matters. The Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund Investor Shares (VGTSX) increased its stake from 17,807K to 20,601K shares—a 13.56% gain—reaching 1.39% ownership. Yet even this fund reduced its portfolio allocation to BELGF by 4.77%, consistent with the broader scaling-back trend.

The Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund Admiral Shares maintained one of the more stable large positions, holding 12,846K shares representing 0.87% ownership. This holding grew from 10,815K shares in the prior period, a 15.81% increase that stands out among the major shareholders. However, like other funds, even this growing position saw its overall portfolio weighting in BELGF decline by 11.61% over the quarter.

What This Means for Investors

The disconnect between the analyst upgrade and declining institutional ownership suggests careful reassessment is ongoing across the professional investor community. While MOELIS AUSTRALIA SECURITIES sees reasons for optimism, the data indicates many funds are using any strength to trim exposure. The mixed price target forecasts and declining revenue projections suggest the upgrade may reflect relative improvement rather than absolute confidence. Investors considering Bellevue Gold should weigh the positive analyst stance against the fundamental headwinds and the cautious behavior of sophisticated institutional players who continue to gradually reduce their commitments to the stock.