Wheat Market on the Wobble Board: Mid-Week Recovery Takes Shape

After a challenging Tuesday session, wheat futures bounced back with gains of 3 to 5 cents across the board Wednesday morning, signaling renewed buying interest in a market characterized by ongoing volatility. The wheat market displayed its characteristic wobble board behavior, with all three major contracts having retreated during the previous session before staging this modest recovery.

Futures Advance as Export Demand Strengthens

The three wheat markets showed broad weakness on Tuesday, with Chicago SRW futures declining 7 to 8 cents while Kansas City HRW futures pulled back 3 to 4 1/4 cents. Minneapolis spring wheat fell 2 to 3 cents in front-month contracts. Despite this pullback, Wednesday’s recovery reflects renewed market confidence, particularly driven by substantial export activity. The U.S. reported wheat export shipments of 392,661 MT (14.43 mbu) during the week ending January 15, representing a significant 23.48% increase from the previous week and 49.97% growth compared to the same period last year.

The geographical distribution of these exports underscores international appetite for American wheat. Mexico emerged as the leading destination with 110,660 MT, followed by Japan with 82,764 MT and Taiwan receiving 54,455 MT. Marketing year exports for 2025/26 have reached 15.975 MMT (586.96 mbu) since June 1, tracking 19.84% ahead of the prior-year pace—a metric that helps explain the wobble board price action as markets absorb strong demand fundamentals.

International Purchasing Activity Bolsters the Complex

A surge in international buying activity provided additional support for grain prices. Saudi Arabia acquired 907,000 MT of wheat through a tender on Monday, while Algeria also secured an estimated 600,000 MT in a separate Monday tender. These large-volume purchases highlight the steady global demand backdrop supporting the market’s recent rebound.

In contrast, European wheat exports from July 1 through January 15 tallied 11.8 MMT, tracking slightly behind the 12 MMT from the corresponding period last year. This softer performance in European supply contributes to the competitive advantage U.S. wheat enjoys in global markets, reinforcing the wobble board dynamic where supply-demand shifts drive price volatility.

Weather Pattern Offers Additional Market Fuel

Beyond export dynamics and international demand, meteorological conditions are primed to support wheat prices going forward. NOAA’s 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast projects widespread precipitation across the Southern Plains extending through the East Coast during the coming week. This moisture recovery could ease concerns about soil conditions and offer psychological support for grain traders monitoring weather risks.

Current contract pricing reflects this mixed backdrop: March CBOT wheat closed Tuesday at $5.10 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents, and was up 4 1/2 cents Wednesday morning. May CBOT wheat finished at $5.21 3/4 and similarly gained 4 1/2 cents. Kansas City March and May contracts rose 4 1/4 cents and 4 1/4 cents respectively, while Minneapolis March and May gained 3 3/4 cents and 3 cents, underlining the broad-based recovery. The wobble board wheat market continues to present traders with opportunities as competing fundamental factors—strong exports, international demand, weather patterns, and technical positioning—drive its characteristic price oscillations.