Gold targets $5,000 as Bitcoin tests support at $90,000 - Is this a specific market move or a structural change?

Gold: From a Safe Asset to a “Must-Have” in Your Portfolio

Importantly, it’s essential to recognize that gold is not just gold. It has become a clear hedge against the current global economic climate. Gold is trading between $4,440 and $4,580 per ounce, and leading financial institutions like HSBC have set a target price of up to $5,000 in the first half of 2026.

The main reason lies with central banks around the world continuing to expand their gold holdings to reduce reliance on the US dollar. This signals that macro-level actions are making gold an unavoidable part of risk mitigation strategies. Geopolitical tensions and increasing concerns over US public debt may further drive capital flows into gold.

Bitcoin at around 96.83K: A Critical Test Before the Supercycle

The cryptocurrency market is at a pivotal moment. Bitcoin is testing the $90,000 level, but the current price is moving at 96.83K (+1.98% in 24 hours), indicating intense pressure from the competition between buyers and sellers.

What’s notable is the outlook of major financial institutions like Bernstein and Standard Chartered, which remain optimistic about this event. They see this as merely a correction in preparation for the era of the “Tokenization Supercycle”—a period when real-world assets worldwide are converted into digital formats. This will create enormous demand for blockchain and cryptocurrencies, with a Bitcoin price target of $150,000.

Although Bitcoin may currently be in a phase of doubt, the medium- and long-term trend depends on whether the price can stay above $90,000.

Thai Stock Market: The Fragility of Market Structure

Let’s look at the Thai stock market (SET Index), which experienced an unexpected short-term decline. The SET Index plunged sharply by 27.22 points, closing at 1,253.60 points.

The cause was not due to fundamental economic issues in Thailand but rather a large sell-off (Big Lot) at prices below the normal market level in DELTA shares. This pressure caused DELTA’s stock price to fall more than 12%, and given DELTA’s sizable market cap, it dragged the index down by over 15 points.

These situations reveal that the Thai stock market still heavily relies on a limited number of stocks. Large movements from a single stock can significantly shake the entire market. Moreover, foreign investors continued to sell a net of 3,700 million baht, indicating a short-term loss of confidence.

The Shift of Power: Events That Change the Balance

Underlying all these movements is still connected to external macro factors. The market is waiting to see the non-farm payroll figures (NFP), expected to be around 55,000 jobs. If the data aligns with expectations, it will confirm that the economy remains on a soft landing path.

The issue of selecting a new Fed chair, with Kevin Hassett stepping in, is also highly significant for risk assets. If monetary policy tightens with higher interest rates in the second half of the year, it will act as a pull for high-risk assets worldwide, including the Thai stock market.

Currently, markets are adjusting, and the key is not to let short-term issues like DELTA distract us from the larger global market trends. Gold remains above $5,000, Bitcoin continues to seek critical levels, and the Thai stock market needs further structural stability.