川普关税新政搅动全球市场，黄金白银创新高美债承压

On January 13 local time, global markets exhibited volatile movements amid multiple overlapping political and economic factors. Notably, tariff policies, geopolitical risks, and Federal Reserve policy directions became key focus areas for investors. U.S. ten-year Treasury yields came under pressure amid policy uncertainty, while metal commodities showed strong performance.

Escalating Geopolitical Tensions, Weakening Dollar Drives Gold Surge

The Middle East situation continues to evolve, with Iran reporting hundreds of deaths in recent events. In response, the Trump administration adopted a hardline stance, announcing that any country engaging in commercial dealings with Iran will face 25% tariffs on all trade with the United States. The policy took effect immediately, deepening market concerns about uncertainty in U.S. foreign trade policy.

Against this backdrop, “sell dollar” trades have become a market focus again. The dollar index declined 0.25% to 98.8, while U.S. ten-year Treasury yields rose modestly to 4.18% (up 2 basis points from the previous trading day), but remained under overall pressure. Safe-haven assets performed brilliantly, with gold rising 1.97% to $4,597.9 per ounce, reaching a new all-time high. WTI crude oil rose 1.8% to $59.8 per barrel, marking its third consecutive day of gains.

In forex markets, USD/JPY rose 0.14%, while EUR/USD advanced 0.26%.

U.S. Stocks Rally Across the Board, Tech Stocks Lead as Google’s Market Cap Breaks $4 Trillion

Despite early session weakness from policy uncertainty, U.S. stocks ultimately staged a rebound. The Dow Jones index rose 0.17%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.16% to 6,977 points, and the Nasdaq index gained 0.26% to 23,733 points.

Tech and retail stocks were the primary drivers. Notably, Google parent company Alphabet’s closing market cap historically broke through $4 trillion, with strong stock performance. Reports indicate that Apple’s AI-powered Siri voice assistant will use Google’s Gemini as its foundational model, further reinforcing market recognition of Google’s position in AI.

Tesla rose 0.89%, Apple gained 0.34%, and NVIDIA edged up 0.03%.

Meanwhile, Trump announced that if credit card companies fail to cap credit card interest rates at 10% or below for a one-year period as required, it would be illegal. This statement triggered a financial sector selloff, with American Express and Capital One shares falling 4.2% and 6.4% respectively, JPMorgan Chase down 1.4%, and Citigroup down 3%.

Chinese Concept Stocks Rally Strongly, AI Development Becomes Investment Focus

China’s artificial intelligence technology development prospects have attracted international investor attention. Alibaba American Depositary Shares (ADS) surged 10.2% to $166.31 at Monday’s close, marking the largest gain since August 29. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which reflects overall Chinese concept stock performance, rose 4.26% to 8,023 points, while KraneShares Chinatech ETF (KWEB) rose 5.1%.

Investors are closely watching whether China can achieve breakthroughs in next-generation AI technology roadmaps, which has also elevated valuation expectations for related Chinese concept stocks.

Crypto Market Rallies in Tandem, Bitcoin and Ethereum Show Divergent Performance

The cryptocurrency market exhibits increasing correlation with traditional stock markets. Bitcoin’s latest real-time price stands at 96.75K USD, with 24-hour gains of 1.97%. Ethereum is quoted at 3.36K USD, up 1.86% in the last 24 hours.

In contrast, previously mentioned data showing Bitcoin up 0.29% and Ethereum down 0.9% in 24 hours has been adjusted. Latest data indicates crypto assets overall display an upward trend.

European Stocks Mixed, Hong Kong Stock Index Futures Modestly Higher

European stock markets showed mixed performance, with Germany’s DAX 30 index up 0.57%, France’s CAC 40 index down slightly 0.04%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 index up 0.16%.

In Hong Kong markets, the Hang Seng Index night-time futures closed at 26,994 points, up 397 points from the previous close, trading at a premium of 386 points with 21,535 contracts traded. The HSI Futures night session closed at 9,365 points with a premium of 145 points.

Policy Uncertainty Intensifies, Federal Reserve Independence Questioned

A Department of Justice investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Powell has sparked deep market concerns about the Fed’s independence. Powell stated this reflects challenges to the Fed’s autonomous decision-making. More than 10 economic policymakers, including former Fed chairs Yellen, Greenspan, and Bernanke, jointly issued statements emphasizing that Federal Reserve independence is essential for economic stability.

This joint statement was signed by former Treasury Secretaries Paulson, Geithner, Rubin, and Lew, as well as economists Hubbard, Rogoff, and Bernstein. The statement indicates that Fed independence is a necessary condition for achieving price stability, full employment, and moderate long-term interest rates.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated to Trump on Sunday evening that investigations into the Fed chair could have negative market impacts, and believed Powell would only step down when the president appoints a new chair. However, this scenario has since changed, with Powell’s stance becoming increasingly hardened.

Supreme Court Reviews Tariff Policy, Trump Issues Warning

Trump stated on social media Monday that if the Supreme Court makes a tariff ruling unfavorable to America for any reason, the United States will face compensation in the hundreds of billions of dollars. He further emphasized this does not include compensation needed for government and related businesses to invest in factory construction to avoid paying tariffs. When these amounts accumulate, they will reach trillions of dollars, Trump stated, adding this would create consequences the nation could hardly bear.

He warned that if the Supreme Court rules unfavorably on this critical issue related to national security and wealth policy, America will face a difficult situation.

Yen Expected to Appreciate Gradually, Fitch Outlook on 2026 Exchange Rate

International ratings agency Fitch released a foreign exchange market monitoring report, projecting the yen will appreciate moderately in 2026 but remain at historical weaker levels. Following a volatile 2025, year-end nominal and real trade-weighted yen rates both approached historic lows.

In the first half of last year, with a weakening dollar, the yen appreciated accordingly. However, since the second half, despite continued inflation, Japanese authorities maintained interest rates unchanged, causing the yen’s nominal trade-weighted rate to depreciate approximately 13% from mid-April through year-end.

Fitch believes 160 USD/JPY remains a key attention level for Japanese authorities. With monetary policy normalization while other major central banks cut rates or maintain them, the yen has some room for appreciation. The report predicts the yen will appreciate approximately 6% against the dollar this year.

Hedge Fund Legend Optimistic on Inflation Target Adjustment, Ackman Suggests Pension Reform

Renowned hedge fund figure (Bill Ackman) pointed out that America’s return to a 2% inflation target represents an “unrealistic” expectation. He predicts the Fed will abandon this target, instead setting inflation targets between 2.5% and 3%.

Speaking at UBS’s annual Asia Wealth Forum, Ackman stated that while markets widely expect additional Fed rate cuts, he remains skeptical. Although artificial intelligence as a productivity tool helps lower costs, it is insufficient to bring interest rates back to past low levels.

Ackman also recommends the U.S. follow Australia’s model in establishing mandatory occupational superannuation retirement savings plans, allowing employers and employees to invest savings in diversified portfolios to enhance nationwide wealth accumulation. He stated he has presented this suggestion to Trump, who expressed support for the plan, believing it can be achieved.

Meta Invests Heavily in AI Computing Infrastructure, Data Center Investment Becomes Focus

Meta CEO Zuckerberg announced the launch of Meta Compute, a strategic initiative aimed at building computing infrastructure with tens of gigawatts capacity within the decade, with plans to further expand to hundreds of gigawatts in the future.

The initiative is jointly led by Meta’s global infrastructure head Santosh Janardhan and Daniel Gross, working closely with new President and Vice Chair Dina Powell McCormick. Janardhan continues overseeing Meta’s technical architecture, software stack, chip initiatives, and global data center operations, while Gross leads a newly established team focused on long-term capacity strategy and vendor partnerships.

Following lukewarm market response to the Llama 4 model, Meta continues investing to maintain its position in Silicon Valley’s AI race, committing to $72 billion in capital expenditures in 2025.

Data Center Investment Prospects Broad, Moody’s Projects Over $3 Trillion Investment Over Five Years

Moody’s latest report projects at least $3 trillion will be invested in data center-related fields over the next five years, with these funds relying on credit market support across multiple sectors. The report indicates trillions of dollars will be used for servers, computing equipment, data center facilities, and new electrical capacity to support AI and cloud computing development.

The report shows most funds will come directly from major tech companies. Six U.S. hyperscale cloud service providers—Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Oracle, Meta, and CoreWeave—are projected to invest $500 billion in data centers this year. Banks will continue playing an “important role” in financing. Given the massive capital required, other institutional investors will increasingly participate in lending.

This Week’s Market Watch Focus

• Japan November Trade Balance data
• U.S. December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
• U.S. December Unadjusted CPI Year-over-Year
• U.S. October New Home Sales Annualized
• Federal Reserve Committee Member Musalem Speech
• EIA Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook Report

The U.S. fourth quarter earnings season officially kicks off Tuesday, with major banks including JPMorgan Chase leading the disclosure, with market focus on corporate profitability amid economic policy changes.