#美联储货币政策 Seeing the new developments in the Fed Chair competition, I recall scenes from the past few cycles. In 2008, when Bernanke took office, the market was still guessing about his policy direction; in 2014, when Yellen took over, expectations once again played a significant role. Now, Haskett's probability has fallen from 42% to even lower, while Waller's has risen to 31%. The logic behind this is quite similar to those years—markets are using odds to reflect expectations for future monetary policy.

History shows us that the change of the Fed Chair often marks a watershed for the markets. Each transition is accompanied by a re-pricing of policy signals. Haskett was previously favored probably because his hawkish stance aligned with certain market expectations; now, with Waller's probability rising, it indicates that capital markets are reassessing who is more likely to steer the ship.

This kind of uncertainty actually tests investors' resolve the most. I have seen too many people in past cycles get caught up in decision-making due to expectations about the Fed Chair appointment. True long-term participants know that rather than tracking the odds of the Chair's selection, it's better to observe the evolving trends of the monetary policy framework itself. The current complexity of the global economy far exceeds that of ten years ago, and whoever the new Chair is, they will face unprecedented multiple constraints.

The key is not to guess the right candidate, but to understand the possible policy directions in advance.