Reuters: The United States is expected to undertake military action against Iran within 24 hours, and Tehran has closed its civil aviation airspace.

Reuters reports that multiple Western and Israeli officials assess that the United States could take military action against Iran within the next 24 hours, urging allies to accelerate the deployment of local personnel in response to the ongoing anti-government unrest and human rights crisis inside Iran. In response, Iran has closed most civil aviation airspace and warned that if the U.S. insists on attacking, it will retaliate against U.S. military bases in the surrounding region. The Middle East situation has once again escalated.

U.S. withdraws Middle East personnel, will it act within 24 hours?

The report indicates that the U.S. has begun withdrawing some personnel from multiple military bases in the Middle East. A U.S. official stated that this is a preventive measure in response to the significantly heightened tensions locally. Western military officials believe this is Washington’s usual uncertainty strategy:

All signs point to an imminent U.S. attack, but this is also the style of the current administration to keep everyone alert; unpredictability is part of its strategy.

Israeli and European officials also revealed that the U.S. may take action within the next 24 hours, but the actual scale and scope of the strike remain unclear. President Trump previously stated that he is still monitoring the situation and has not ruled out any options.

Open-source intelligence monitoring accounts also observed that the U.S. Air Force has begun withdrawing aircraft from (Al Udeid Air Base) in Qatar, preparing for a strike against Iran.

The chart shows at least 6 KC-135R/T aerial refueling aircraft departing from this base in Qatar one after another. Iran warns: U.S. military bases will become targets for retaliation

Iran has issued warnings to several neighboring countries that if the U.S. takes military action against Iran, U.S. military bases in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Turkey will become targets for retaliatory strikes. An Iranian senior official called on regional countries to dissuade the U.S. and prevent further escalation of the conflict.

Currently, the direct communication channels between Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff have been cut off, further limiting the space for conflict negotiations.

Polymarket data shows that the probabilities of events related to “When will the U.S. attack Iran” have significantly increased, especially for options with longer timeframes such as January 31 to June 30.

Internal unrest and human rights controversies as background for conflict

Recently, Iran has been facing its most severe internal unrest since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. The initial protests originated from economic deterioration and quickly escalated into challenges against the regime. Iranian officials estimate the death toll exceeds 2,000, while human rights groups put the number at over 2,600, with more than 18,000 arrests.

Iranian military and government officials blame foreign interference for the unrest and emphasize that security forces still control the situation. Western officials assess that although the regime faces unprecedented pressure, there are no signs of imminent collapse in the short term.

(From economic sanctions, currency collapse to nationwide protests: How Iran’s economic crisis ignited large-scale unrest)

Iran closes airspace, travel warnings turn red

As the risk of conflict rises, Iran has issued a NOTAM, closing its airspace and prohibiting all civil flights not approved. Flight tracking data shows that multiple aircraft have been forced to reroute. Almost simultaneously, the U.S. embassy in the Middle East also issued security warnings restricting non-essential personnel from traveling to the country.

The UK Foreign Office also advised the public to avoid non-essential travel to Israel, citing the possibility of rapid escalation of regional tensions and potential disruptions to shipping and transportation. Reuters pointed out that closing airspace and simultaneously evacuating military personnel are usually symbolic actions before conflict erupts, indicating that the Middle East region is in a state of high instability and chaos.

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